Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Odds jumped to 93% on Jul 31, 2026

OpenMove

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 83.5¢ to 92.5¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Iranian Media.

How did the odds move?

At match83.5¢
+5m84¢
+30m85.5¢
+1h92.5¢
+24h60¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 84¢ → 92.5¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media
  • 84.5¢ → 92.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media
  • 94.5¢ → 86¢-8.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
  • 86.5¢ → 61.5¢-25 ptsafter a signal from AP Reporter

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesIranian Media96%match
Peace Council: Hamas has agreed to disarm Gaza Peace Council: Hamas has formally committed to implementing an implementation plan to hand over all its weapons. A move that will be followed by the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The plan also "promises significant benefits for the people of Gaza, who have long been waiting for a better future." isna.ir/xdWPp4 @isna94
YesIranian Media94%match
Peace Council: Hamas has agreed to disarm Gaza Peace Council: Hamas has formally committed to implementing an implementation plan to hand over all its weapons. A move that will be followed by the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The plan also "promises significant benefits for the people of Gaza, who have long been waiting for a better future." nournews.ir @Nournews_IR

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 21% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES21¢
NO80¢

Vol$1.5M

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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