When will Hamas agree to disarm?June 30, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No$486Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Hamas to Al-Araby TV: The resistance's weapons are open for discussion once a Palestinian state is established. 84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A8%D8%A5%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B7%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9
Taher al-Nunu, advisor to the head of Hamas' political bureau, told Al Jazeera Mubasher: "We support a single Palestinian Authority for the West Bank and Gaza, and if the occupation ends, there will be no need for resistance."
Taher al-Nunu, advisor to the head of Hamas' political bureau, told Al Jazeera Mubasher: "We are dealing with Trump's plan as a single agenda, and the occupation only wants disarmament."
Hamas spokesman: We are ready to hand over Gaza administration, but resistance weapons will be examined in the second phase @YjcNewsChannel
Hamas' first comment on reports of "developing its capabilities" #Sky_Online
Hamas: The enemy's reports about the development of the movement's capabilities are a justification for escalating its criminal aggression against our people in Gaza. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem asserted that reports circulating in Zionist media about Hamas developing its capabilities or its intention to launch attacks from the Gaza Strip are part of attempts to justify the escalation of the occupation’s aggression against our people in Gaza and the tightening of the siege imposed on them. Qassem stressed on Monday that Hamas remains committed to the Sharm el-Sheikh agreement to end the war on the Gaza Strip, despite thousands of ongoing Zionist violations of this agreement. Official website - Hamas Movement
Hamas: The continued targeting of the police force in the Gaza Strip by the criminal Zionist occupation is a continuation of the enemy's crimes and terrorism against our Palestinian people, aimed at perpetuating the state of lawlessness and chaos, and hindering any efforts to recover and restore normal life to the Gaza Strip. Official website - Hamas Movement
Hamas officials have insisted that a new security arrangement in Gaza must not replace existing Palestinian civil police. The U.N. has also credited the “blue police” with returning security to aid distribution in Gaza. • • In November 2025, senior Hamas official and founding member Mousa Abu Marzouk warned against replacement, saying Gaza already has functioning civil and police institutions that managed the territory before, during, and after the war, and that the population trusts them: • • “These forces sacrificed thousands of their members. They are from the sons of Gaza, the sons of the Palestinian people. What will you do with these existing forces? They will never accept a foreign force coming to replace them.” • • Head of Hamas abroad Khaled Meshaal compared proposals to dismantle Gaza’s existing civil and security personnel to the failed U.S. de-Ba’athification policies in Iraq, saying they led to chaos, insurgency, and civil war.
Hamas: Targeting the sons of Palestinian leaders will not weaken the resistance’s position, but will increase its adherence to our people’s rights and its determination to seize them, and will deepen popular support for it, as it pays the same price of confrontation with its people, and offers up its sons and families, just as our people do in every part of the Gaza Strip. Official website - Hamas Movement
Fears of renewed Gaza war as Hamas disarmament talks stall
The occupation did not adhere to the details of the first phase, which is hindering the transition to the second phase, and we are ready to begin the second phase in every sense of the word. *Dr. Khalil al-Hayya, head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip* *Official Website - Hamas Movement*
1/ Hamas has been given a formal proposal to lay down its weapons, a senior US official and another person briefed on the matter told NPR. They say the proposal was handed over last week and calls for Hamas and all other groups in Gaza to decommission their weapons.
NOAl Jazeera English98%match63¢+59%
Hamas’s political leader abroad, Khaled Meshaal, has rejected calls to disarm Palestinian factions in Gaza, arguing that stripping weapons from an occupied people would turn them into “an easy victim to be eliminated”
Where does the news lean?
1YES16NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
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