Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Odds jumped to 27% on Jul 30, 2026

OpenMove

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 16.5¢ to 27¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from N13/Kan Reporters.

How did the odds move?

At match16.5¢
+5m23¢
+30m27¢
+1h27¢
+24h90¢
1h move+10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 30, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 27.5¢ → 44.5¢+17 ptsafter a signal from i24 Reporter
  • 42¢ → 34¢-8 ptsafter a signal from N13/GLZ Reporters
  • 41¢ → 31.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from afp.com
  • 34¢ → 43.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from afp.com
  • 74¢ → 89¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media
  • 74.5¢ → 89¢+14.5 ptsafter a signal from entekhab_news
  • 73.5¢ → 90¢+16.5 ptsafter a signal from israelnews23
  • 72.5¢ → 88.5¢+16 ptsafter a signal from foxnews.com
  • 73.5¢ → 85.5¢+12 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media

What moved the odds?

YesN13/Kan Reporters94%match
Talks are progressing for Hamas to declare disarmament and relinquish control of the Strip in favor of the International Stabilization Force. This is confirmed by two regional sources to Channel 13. According to the sources, talks are also underway to hold a signing ceremony for the understandings in Egypt in the coming days. Progress has been made in recent days following pressure exerted by mediators Egypt and Qatar. The talks are taking place in Cairo - where a senior Hamas delegation is located - under the auspices of Egyptian intelligence, and mediators Qatar and Turkey. One of the sources noted that there are still disagreements on "minor" points, and that the Trump administration is pressing for progress on the declaration. According to him, Hamas will agree to the transfer of its weapons to a third party, which is not the Palestinian Authority.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 21% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES21¢
NO80¢

Vol$1.5M

Follow this market

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for When will Hamas agree to disarm? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.