Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gilad Erdan

OpenVol$827KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NON12/GLZ Reporters92%match100¢
After failing to form coalitions (including with Gantz), Gilad Erdan announces: My party will not run in the elections
NOKan92%match100¢
Gilad Erdan announced: The "Unity" party led by me will not run in the upcoming elections @glick_sh
NOisraelhayomheb94%match100¢
Gilad Erdan announces retirement: Unity Party will not run in elections
NOIsrael Hayom93%match100¢
Gilad Erdan announces retirement The Unity Party will not run in the elections
NON13 Reporter94%match100¢
Unity Party Chairman Gilad Erdan: "Throughout my life, I have served the people of Israel and the State of Israel. Out of this sense of mission, I founded the Unity Party a few weeks ago, because I believe that Israel needs a broad Zionist government that can pass a real conscription law and resolve disputes. I believed that the terrible massacre of October 7 and the terrible price paid by the citizens of Israel oblige us to change direction. Unfortunately, after about a month of campaigning, reality shows that in the upcoming elections, a large majority of the public is seeking, above all, a clear decision on the question of the identity of the Prime Minister, and the need for a broad unity government is not high on the citizens' priority list. Despite the many efforts we have made, the support so far for the Unity Party that I founded does not guarantee with high probability that it will pass the threshold, and the possibilities of joining forces with other parties in the Unity Bloc are also not being realized. That is why I decided "Leadership is also about recognizing reality as it is and acting responsibly, and I believe that we must ensure that our voters' votes will affect the outcome of the elections and not go down the drain. I thank everyone who believed in the path of unity, volunteered, supported and helped, and especially my friends in the party leadership - Yuli Edelstein, Aliza Bloch, Oren Smedja and Hazi Nechama - for their partnership, action and faith in the path. I had the honor of leading this wonderful group. People of all ranks and above who believe in the idea of ​​unity and its importance and will continue to fight for it wherever they are. Today I withdraw the candidacy of the Unity Party, but not my public commitment and my path as a public messenger. I will continue to act in any way I can for the people, for the IDF soldiers and for a better future in Israel."
NON13/GLZ Reporters94%match100¢
Unity Party Chairman Gilad Erdan: "Throughout my life, I have served the people of Israel and the State of Israel. Out of this sense of mission, I founded the Unity Party a few weeks ago, because I believe that Israel needs a broad Zionist government that can pass a real conscription law and resolve disputes. I believed that the terrible massacre of October 7 and the terrible price paid by the citizens of Israel oblige us to change direction. Unfortunately, after about a month of campaigning, reality shows that in the upcoming elections, a large majority of the public is seeking, above all, a clear decision on the question of the identity of the Prime Minister, and the need for a broad unity government is not high on the citizens' priority list. Despite the many efforts we have made, the support so far for the Unity Party that I founded does not guarantee with high probability that it will pass the threshold, and the possibilities of joining forces with other parties in the Unity Bloc are also not being realized. That is why I decided "Leadership is also about recognizing reality as it is and acting responsibly, and I believe that we must ensure that our voters' votes will affect the outcome of the elections and not go down the drain. I thank everyone who believed in the path of unity, volunteered, supported and helped, and especially my friends in the party leadership - Yuli Edelstein, Aliza Bloch, Oren Smedja and Hazi Nechama - for their partnership, action and faith in the path. I had the honor of leading this wonderful group. People of all ranks and above who believe in the idea of ​​unity and its importance and will continue to fight for it wherever they are. Today I withdraw the candidacy of the Unity Party, but not my public commitment and my path as a public messenger. I will continue to act in any way I can for the people, for the IDF soldiers and for a better future in Israel."
NON13/GLZ Reporters92%match100¢
Gilad Erdan announces that the Unity Party he leads will not run in the upcoming elections
NON12 Reporter94%match100¢
Unity Party Chairman Gilad Erdan: "Throughout my life, I have served the people of Israel and the State of Israel. Out of this sense of mission, I founded the Unity Party a few weeks ago, because I believe that Israel needs a broad Zionist government that can pass a real conscription law and resolve disputes. I believed that the terrible massacre of October 7 and the terrible price paid by the citizens of Israel oblige us to change direction. Unfortunately, after about a month of campaigning, reality shows that in the upcoming elections, a large majority of the public is seeking, above all, a clear decision on the question of the identity of the Prime Minister, and the need for a broad unity government is not high on the citizens' priority list. Despite the many efforts we have made, the support so far for the Unity Party that I founded does not guarantee with high probability that it will pass the threshold, and the possibilities of joining forces with other parties in the Unity Bloc are also not being realized. That is why I decided "Leadership is also about recognizing reality as it is and acting responsibly, and I believe that we must ensure that our voters' votes will affect the outcome of the elections and not go down the drain. I thank everyone who believed in the path of unity, volunteered, supported and helped, and especially my friends in the party leadership - Yuli Edelstein, Aliza Bloch, Oren Smedja and Hazi Nechama - for their partnership, action and faith in the path. I had the honor of leading this wonderful group. People of all ranks and above who believe in the idea of ​​unity and its importance and will continue to fight for it wherever they are. Today I withdraw the candidacy of the Unity Party, but not my public commitment and my path as a public messenger. I will continue to act in any way I can for the people, for the IDF soldiers and for a better future in Israel."
NON12 Reporter94%match100¢
Unity Party Chairman Gilad Erdan: "Throughout my life, I have served the people of Israel and the State of Israel. Out of this sense of mission, I founded the Unity Party a few weeks ago, because I believe that Israel needs a broad Zionist government that can pass a real conscription law and resolve disputes. I believed that the terrible massacre of October 7 and the terrible price paid by the citizens of Israel oblige us to change direction. Unfortunately, after about a month of campaigning, reality shows that in the upcoming elections, a large majority of the public is seeking, above all, a clear decision on the question of the identity of the Prime Minister, and the need for a broad unity government is not high on the citizens' priority list. Despite the many efforts we have made, the support so far for the Unity Party that I founded does not guarantee with high probability that it will pass the threshold, and the possibilities of joining forces with other parties in the Unity Bloc are also not being realized. That is why I decided "Leadership is also about recognizing reality as it is and acting responsibly, and I believe that we must ensure that our voters' votes will affect the outcome of the elections and not go down the drain. I thank everyone who believed in the path of unity, volunteered, supported and helped, and especially my friends in the party leadership - Yuli Edelstein, Aliza Bloch, Oren Smedja and Hazi Nechama - for their partnership, action and faith in the path. I had the honor of leading this wonderful group. People of all ranks and above who believe in the idea of ​​unity and its importance and will continue to fight for it wherever they are. Today I withdraw the candidacy of the Unity Party, but not my public commitment and my path as a public messenger. I will continue to act in any way I can for the people, for the IDF soldiers and for a better future in Israel."
NOaa_arabic92%match99¢+1%
A split in Likud: Gilad Erdan launches a new right-wing party The former Israeli ambassador to the UN says "Likud is no longer my home," according to Yedioth Ahronoth..

Where does the news lean?

14YES11NO21neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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