Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: No$3.5Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
LIVE Middle East war: France will take "an initiative" at the UN regarding its "neutral" mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz
SANCTIONED • • UK sanctions Iranian targets in response to national security threats
France’s Macron on Iranian alert against French, UK warships: No plan for deployment, prepared to support international mission
FRANCE'S MACRON ON IRANIAN ALERT AGAINST FRENCH & UK WARSHIPS: NO DEPLOYMENT PLANS BUT PREPARED TO SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL MISSION ...
FRANCE'S MACRON ON IRANIAN ALERT AGAINST FRENCH & UK WARSHIPS: NO DEPLOYMENT PLANS BUT PREPARED TO SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL MISSION
FRANCE'S MACRON, ON IRANIAN WARNING AGAINST FRENCH/UK WARSHIPS, SAYS NO QUESTION OF DEPLOYMENT, STANDING READY TO HELP INTERNATIONAL MISSION
Iran warns France, UK of 'immediate response' to any Hormuz deployment — AFP
ALERT: Iran warns France, UK of 'immediate response' to any Hormuz deployment
French Foreign Minister: We strongly oppose attacks on civilian infrastructure Reuters quoted the French Foreign Minister as saying: I hope Trump does not carry out his threat against Iran. We strongly oppose attacks that target civilian infrastructure. Get the latest news: Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
United Kingdom: British Prime Minister: There is no assessment to suggest that we are targeted by Iran and our priority is protecting British interests.
The UK has approved the use of its bases for the US to launch strikes on Iranian sites targeting the Strait of Hormuz
UK agrees to let US use bases for strikes on Iranian sites targeting Strait of Hormuz
The Times: Britain agrees to US use RF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases to carry out strikes against Iranian targets
Britain has given the US the green light to use RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to carry out raids on Iranian missile sites that are attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz - reports in the UK
Where does the news lean?
2YES34NO22neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.