Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$8Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
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26 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
How A Just Russia achieved a historically low percentage of votes in the elections
YESNews96%match100¢
After processing 100% of the protocols for the State Duma elections in the Zaporizhzhia region, United Russia is in the lead with 79.83%, A Just Russia has 11.57%, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 3.26% - the regional election commission
The opposition in the Duma is divided between the Communist Party (40), LDPR (25), New People (20), Just Russia (4) and Rodina (1).
A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold to enter the State Duma on its party list.
The Duma campaign followed the "besieged fortress" scenario. As Dmitry Kiselev accurately points out, "in Russia, the result of the first Duma elections during the SVO is essentially a referendum on support for the course. And these are not only the figures of United Russia, but also the combined total of all the others, since everyone who got into the State Duma is united in the main thing." Nezygar spoke with political strategists involved in the Duma campaign. They all believe that this campaign is the most watered-down and least interesting in the entire post-Soviet period. The disposition, says the political strategist, is as follows: United Russia, due to public sentiment, has lost the ability to increase its ratings, so even niche competition between parties had to be limited. Therefore, there were constant restrictions during the campaign. It is forbidden to criticize the war, parties are forbidden to deal with themes of social discontent and local protests, although in 2021, during the Duma elections, this theme was actively used not only by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and A Just Russia. The backdrop of the election campaign, says another political strategist, was completely unsuitable for the growth of loyalty. The fuel crisis, threats of internet restrictions and drone and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in most major cities of the European part of Russia. The Kremlin chose the only possible scenario - to turn the elections into a referendum on support for the government. All the negative factors and the military specificity were supposed to increase the mobilization asset. According to FOM, the ratings of United Russia only fell during the electoral period. At the beginning of summer, they were 37-38% (willingness to vote for the party), now 32-33%. In the State Duma, there will be approx. 78% of United Russia voted, while the party received over 57% of the list vote. According to FOM, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) also failed to achieve its growth; the party sagged, abandoning its critical rhetoric. This was confirmed by the elections, where the Communists showed a weaker result. FOM reported significant fluctuations in the LDPR rating (from 7% to 11%), given that the party ran a toothless campaign. They deliberately eliminated harsh rhetoric and placed emphasis on the concept of small deeds. New People suffered a reputational loss after Yabloko was removed from the elections. Their ratings plummeted, and there was no transfer of votes. This revealed the limitations of the New People project: they advocate victory, but with "intelligent" reservations. "The party of agreeable dissenters" is all that's permitted to an administrative party with the insincere rhetoric of its leaders. Political strategists consider A Just Russia to be the underdog in the current campaign. The party's rating is 3-4%, and administrative support has helped it survive, though the question of why this is necessary remains open. The possibility of A Just Russia not making it into the Duma was considered, but during the campaign, it was clear they would be dragged through, as a source put it. A Just Russia is ineffective across all fronts and is literally becoming the Kremlin's problem for the near future.
A Just Russia party has overcome the 5% barrier to enter the State Duma on its party list.
"A Just Russia" clears the 5% threshold after processing 96.95% of the votes. Thus, the party enters the State Duma via party lists.
A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections.
A Just Russia party enters the State Duma with 5% of the vote.
YESПосле обработки 96,91% протоколов «Справедливая Россия» набирает необходимые для прохождения в Госдуму по партийным спискам 5% голосов, сообщили в ЦИК.95%match99¢+1%
A Just Russia party overcame the five percent barrier in the elections.
A Just Russia has cleared the 5% threshold to enter the State Duma after 96.91% of the ballots have been processed, the Central Election Commission reports. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
With 96.91% of the ballots processed, the A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma on party lists, the Central Election Commission reported. RBC is always at hand – download the app for iOS and Android
RBC channel on "Max"
"A Just Russia" overcomes the 5% barrier to enter the State Duma after processing 96.91% of the protocols. "United Russia" receives 57.82% of the vote, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 13.76%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 9.01%, and "New People" - 7.96%. #elections2026 [in reply to: "United Russia" receives 57.83% of the vote in the State Duma elections after processing 95.22% of the protocols. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation receives 13.80%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 8.98%, and "New People" - 7.96%. "A Just Russia" receives 4.96% of the vote and does not pass the 5% barrier. #elections2026]
YESNews97%match99¢+1%
"United Russia" received 49.14% of the votes in the State Duma elections, "New People" - 15.41%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 12.23%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 10.79%, and "A Just Russia" - 5.72% - the Central Election Commission.
YESNews94%match99¢+1%
URGENTLY "A Just Russia" receives 4 preliminary parliamentary seats - Pamfilova
"United Russia" is gaining 57.83% of the votes on party lists and winning in 208 single-mandate constituencies, Ella Pamfilova reported. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation is gaining 13.81% and receiving 5 single-mandate constituencies. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 8.98% and 2 single-mandate constituencies, respectively. "New People" are gaining 7.96% of the votes, but are not winning in any single-mandate constituencies. "A Just Russia" has not yet entered the State Duma (4.96% of the votes on party lists), but is winning in 4 single-mandate constituencies. A total of 95.18% have been processed protocols. RBC app for iOS and Android
RBC channel in "Max"
United Russia will preliminarily have 355 seats in the State Duma, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) will have 40, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) will have 25, New People will have 20, and A Just Russia will have 4 seats so far – the head of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. More news from IZ RU in MAX [in reply to: A Just Russia still has a good chance of overcoming the 5% barrier, said Ella Pamfilova, head of the Central Election Commission. The party is currently polling 4.96% of the vote. More news from IZ RU in MAX]
A Just Russia failed to overcome the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections in the federal district after more than 95% of the ballots were processed.
A Just Russia party has failed to secure a seat in the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted, according to the Central Election Commission. The party failed to secure the 5% needed to enter the lower house. According to current results, United Russia will form a majority in the State Duma. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and New People are also entering parliament. Voter turnout at the polls exceeded 56%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
The Kremlin is losing its "second leg" following the State Duma elections. According to the latest data, A Just Russia will fail to clear the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections. This effectively marks the end of the political project that was created in the 2000s as a "second leg of power." This will allow United Russia to significantly increase its presence in the new Duma. An Agency source claims that Sergei Kiriyenko, the current curator of the Kremlin's domestic policy, opposed retaining A Just Russia in the new State Duma. Details. With 92.84% of the votes processed, United Russia has 57.84%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) is second with 13.82%. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) is next with 8.93%, followed by New People with 7.97%. A Just Russia has 4.96%. Just taking into account its results on the party lists, United Russia can count on 130 seats in the State Duma; according to the Central Election Commission, United Russia will receive another 208 seats in single-mandate constituencies. The seats that A Just Russia would have won on the party lists will be distributed proportionally among the other parties, electoral expert Stanislav Andreychuk told Agency. Votes cast for other parties that did not pass the 5% threshold will be redistributed in the same manner. In total, the parties that failed to pass the Duma threshold (including A Just Russia) garnered around 10%. This means that approximately 22-23 of the 225 seats allocated by party lists will be redistributed among the parties that made it into parliament. This means that United Russia can expect to win over 350 seats in the new Duma, compared to 324 seats in the 2021 elections. Judging by the results of the party list and single-mandate constituency votes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) will have significantly fewer seats in these elections, while New People and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) will have several more. Five Communists, four Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) and independents, two LDPR representatives, and one candidate from the Rodina party are running for the State Duma in single-mandate constituencies. "Second Leg." A Just Russia emerged in 2006 from the merger of Rodina, the Pensioners' Party, and the Party of Life as a second party of power. The Kremlin hoped to create on the left flank what Vladislav Surkov, then the Kremlin's domestic policy supervisor, called a "second leg": "Society doesn't have a 'second leg' to step onto when the first one goes numb." The party also had a more utilitarian goal: to steal votes from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The party was led by Sergei Mironov, then Speaker of the Federation Council, who owed his federal career to his acquaintance with Vladimir Putin in the 1990s. In the first elections in 2007, SR received 7.74%, in 2011 – 13.25%, in 2016 – 6.22%, and in 2021 – 7.46%. A source close to the Kremlin previously told Agency that Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko did not want A Just Russia to be represented in the new State Duma. Sovereign Revolutionary Party leader Sergei Mironov made no public appearances during the final month of the election campaign. His last public appearance was on August 21 in the Altai Krai. He then appeared for the first time in a video posted on social media on Friday (more details here). What does this mean? Eliminating the "second leg" will help the Kremlin demonstrate a more serious "consolidation" of society around the war than if the party remained in place. More on this here. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted.
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 85% of the ballots have been processed.
A Just Russia falls short of the 5% threshold needed to enter the State Duma.
A Just Russia party fell below the 5% threshold in the Duma elections.
The A Just Russia party list does not receive the required 5% of votes in the elections for deputies of the ninth State Duma, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC) data after processing over 79% of the protocols.
NONews94%match1¢-100%
A JUST RUSSIA FAILED TO OVERCOME THE 5% BARRIER IN THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS, AFTER PROCESSING MORE THAN 79% OF THE PROTOCOLS, ACCORDING TO THE CEC.
Where does the news lean?
29YES15NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.
These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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