Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Yabloko

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$84KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

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What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NORussian Media97%match100¢
All parties participating in the elections retained their parliamentary privileges. Yabloko and the Direct Democracy Party (PDD; also known as the Tank Party) were able to get their lists into the legislative assemblies of the Novgorod Region and the Jewish Autonomous Region, respectively. Rodina, which failed its regional campaign (its lists did not make it into any legislative assembly, including the Tambov Regional Duma, where it had a faction), also retained its parliamentary privileges. The party still has Andrei Ruzhnikov, a member of parliament on its party list, in the assembly of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. He was elected in 2023. Retaining Yabloko's parliamentary privilege was most likely an unspoken condition for them to be outraged about their exclusion from the State Duma elections, but "within the bounds of decency," says Yevgeny Minchenko, head of Minchenko Consulting.
NORussian Media97%match100¢
All parties participating in the elections retained their parliamentary privileges. Yabloko and the Direct Democracy Party (PDD; also known as the Tank Party) were able to get their lists into the legislative assemblies of the Novgorod Region and the Jewish Autonomous Region, respectively. Rodina, which failed its regional campaign (its lists did not make it into any legislative assembly, including the Tambov Regional Duma, where it had a faction), also retained its parliamentary privileges. The party still has Andrei Ruzhnikov, a member of parliament on its party list, in the assembly of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. He was elected in 2023. Retaining the parliamentary privilege for Yabloko was most likely an unspoken condition for them to be outraged about their exclusion from the State Duma elections, but "within the bounds of decency," says Yevgeny Minchenko, head of Minchenko Consulting. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
NOKremlin-adjacent channel94%match100¢
So-called smart voting has eliminated opposition candidates from the race for Duma seats in several constituencies during the State Duma elections, Nezygar has discovered. Yabloko was the hardest-hit party in the September 20 State Duma elections: first, the Supreme Court ruled to disqualify its list, followed by 27 candidates in single-mandate constituencies. Despite this, candidates from the party were present in 100 constituencies. Yulia Navalnaya, who is listed as an extremist and terrorist by Rosfinmonitoring, and foreign agent Maxim Katz called for voting for 81 Yabloko candidates in constituencies as part of so-called smart voting. "Thanks to" these recommendations, Yabloko members in several constituencies acted as spoilers for United Russia candidates and deprived representatives of other parties who were genuinely vying for seats. The most striking example of such "spoiling" could be observed in the Cherepovets single-mandate constituency of the Vologda region, where Svetlana Gracheva, head of the Kaduy district, nominated by United Russia, beat Alexander Morozov, a member of the Legislative Assembly from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, by just 1%. Gracheva received 25.42% of the vote, while Morozov received 24.39%. Navalnaya and Katz called for voting in this district for Vladimir Nikolaev, a Yabloko member, who ultimately received 5.99%. If not for the so-called smart voting, the United Russia candidate would most likely have lost to the Communist Party in the Cherepovets district. In the Vologda single-mandate constituency, Sergei Selyanin, former head of the Totemsky district, won with 34.16%. Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) deputy Oleg Ershov received 17.64% of the vote, while Yabloko candidate Nikolai Egorov, favored by Navalnaya and Katz, received 6.39%. Had they recommended voting for the Communist, the outcome in this district could have been completely different. Similar cases of protest votes being effectively siphoned off in favor of United Russia were recorded in the Barabinsky district of Novosibirsk Oblast, the South-Eastern district of St. Petersburg, and the Rostov district of Yaroslavl Oblast. In these districts, Yabloko members, following "smart voting" recommendations, received between 5.95% and 8.53% of the vote. Additional list of State Duma candidates with criminal records. In the Moscow single-mandate constituency agreed upon in Tatarstan, Ruslan Yusupov, a member of the republic's parliament, wins for the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR). He has a history of convictions for abuse of power, robbery, and theft. All convictions were expunged in 2000. To ensure Yusupov's election, Alexei Grushin, a United Russia member and deputy general director of JSC Khimgrad, withdrew from the constituency in July in his favor. The withdrawal was technical: Grushin simply failed to submit the necessary documents. After 100% of the ballots were processed, Yusupov received 51.77% of the vote.

Where does the news lean?

0YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.

How did this market resolve?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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