Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?80+
ResolvedOutcome: No$944Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
44 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NONews99%match99¢+1%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian position after the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian response following the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
NONews99%match99¢+1%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after the attack on an oil tanker.
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on an oil tanker.
Live: Iran says it won’t 'allow' other countries to demine the Strait of Hormuz
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: There are still about 8,000 seafarers on board 500 ships who need to be evacuated from the Strait of Hormuz.
The maritime security threat level for the Strait of Hormuz has been raised to “substantial” even as commercial traffic through the waterway remained steady over the last 48 hours, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) in a security report. •
Live: Strait of Hormuz threat level raised to "substantial," naval advisory body says
The UN's International Maritime Organization announced that the safe evacuation of more than 8,500 seafarers still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz requires guarantees from the Islamic Republic that their ships will not be targeted.
Live: Iran rejects third-party intervention for mine clearance in Strait of Hormuz
Washington Institute on the Near East: Iran Remains Determined to Prevent Return to Old Navigation Order Transit of tankers carrying liquids - namely crude oil, liquefied natural gas, liquefied natural gas and petroleum products - has seen a limited recovery in recent days (container ships and dry bulk carriers are excluded from this data), according to a report by market intelligence firm Kepler. The limited traffic patterns, increased alerts, unspecified mine threats and a new drone attack all indicate that Tehran, regardless of diplomatic progress, has no intention of voluntarily returning to normal trade in the Strait of Hormuz. Free robot download from Instagram @YjcNewsChannel
Evacaution of seafarers trapped in Strait requires ceasefire pledge - IMO says
What do oil stockpiles and imports look like amid the Hormuz disruptions?
Details with our correspondent Hisham Al-Rajbani
@Rojbanian
Baqaei, Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Islamic Republic will take whatever action is necessary to protect its interests in relation to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman says Iran is "determined" to control the Strait of Hormuz.
UNCTAD warns of long-term repercussions from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions
#AlArabiya_Business
Political / UNCTAD: The repercussions of the Hormuz closure will continue despite the resumption of navigation.
Including oil and gas tankers and cargo ships... Kpler: 24 cargo ships carrying essential goods transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions
Clapper: With the partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz, tanker freight rates in the Persian Gulf have decreased
On June 29, Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed well below pre-conflict norms, and a steady share of transits ran dark. • • Multiple sanctioned tankers moved through, including a second Iranian vessel in a week identified flying a false European flag. • • Track daily Hormuz transits:
Iran FM warns against outside interference in Strait of Hormuz: Would complicate issues
POLL-Analysts dial down oil forecasts as Hormuz reopening eases supply concerns
Expert doubts Strait of Hormuz will return to how it was before war
Recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has stalled, with daily transits running well below pre-war levels. Two kinetic strikes in 72 hours, including a UAV hit on a non-sanctioned VLCC carrying Qatari crude, have pushed Iran's targeting beyond sanctioned tonnage and prompted the suspension of the IMO evacuation. • • For now, only the U.S.-assisted southern corridor under Project Freedom is keeping limited safe passage open.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the Strait of Hormuz, the mechanism for reopening it, and the resumption of navigation through it are extremely important issues.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Drives Southeast Asia's Shift to Solar Energy The Oil Price website wrote in a report that the US-Israeli war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz faced Southeast Asian countries with an energy crisis, but at the same time significantly accelerated the region's transition to solar energy and reduced dependence on fossil fuels. @IRNA_1313
The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the Strait of Hormuz, the mechanism for reopening it, and the resumption of navigation through it are extremely important issues.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson: The priority now is mine clearance and ensuring the safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz is a complex operation requiring significant technical capabilities.
#Urgent | Spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The priority now is removing mines and ensuring the safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kpler: 24 cargo ships carrying essential goods transited the Strait of Hormuz
CNN reported that 40 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, citing data from the maritime intelligence company Kepler.
24 tankers and ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in one day Kepler Company announced that 24 ships and tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday; a statistic that indicates the continuation of maritime traffic in one of the world's most important energy passages. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_IR
Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal
A company providing ship tracking services: Despite security concerns, vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continued over the weekend In three days, 108 crossings were recorded / Selection
Iran threatens to obstruct the passage of ships sailing outside its designated routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg, citing Kpler data: Approximately 24 cargo ships, including oil and gas tankers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Deputy Foreign Minister: We will not allow any country to demine in the Strait of Hormuz and we will prevent it; we will only do demine ourselves. #Strait_of_Hormuz @IRIBNEWS_COM
South Korean President: All our ships have left the Strait of Hormuz except for two. #AlArabiyaBusiness
Bloomberg, citing Kpler data: Approximately 24 cargo ships, including oil and gas tankers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Russia to import 760,000 barrels of crude oil in May, from the "Sakhalin-2" plant, the first import since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gharibabadi: Demining of the Strait of Hormuz will be carried out only by Iran
South Korean President: All our ships are leaving the Strait of Hormuz except for two.
Kpler data: 24 ships, including oil and liquefied gas tankers, crossed the Strait of Hormuz in both directions.
The International Maritime Organization announces the evacuation of 2,500 sailors and 115 ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
9YES54NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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