Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?40+
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.3Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NONews99%match9¢-100%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian position after the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian response following the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
YESNews99%match91¢+10%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after the attack on an oil tanker.
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on an oil tanker.
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: Clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines is being done in partnership with countries.
The maritime security threat level for the Strait of Hormuz has been raised to “substantial” even as commercial traffic through the waterway remained steady over the last 48 hours, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) in a security report. •
Live: Strait of Hormuz threat level raised to "substantial," naval advisory body says
Washington Institute on the Near East: Iran Remains Determined to Prevent Return to Old Navigation Order Transit of tankers carrying liquids - namely crude oil, liquefied natural gas, liquefied natural gas and petroleum products - has seen a limited recovery in recent days (container ships and dry bulk carriers are excluded from this data), according to a report by market intelligence firm Kepler. The limited traffic patterns, increased alerts, unspecified mine threats and a new drone attack all indicate that Tehran, regardless of diplomatic progress, has no intention of voluntarily returning to normal trade in the Strait of Hormuz. Free robot download from Instagram @YjcNewsChannel
Bloomberg: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal. #News
Following the recent escalation of tensions, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up as giant tankers enter the Gulf, according to Bloomberg.
As Hormuz opens, oil markets are awash in supply
UNCTAD warns of long-term repercussions from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions
#AlArabiya_Business
Clapper: With the partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz, tanker freight rates in the Persian Gulf have decreased
On June 29, Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed well below pre-conflict norms, and a steady share of transits ran dark. • • Multiple sanctioned tankers moved through, including a second Iranian vessel in a week identified flying a false European flag. • • Track daily Hormuz transits:
Iran FM warns against outside interference in Strait of Hormuz: Would complicate issues
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We are committed to what was stated regarding the Strait of Hormuz in the Memorandum of Understanding.
POLL-Analysts dial down oil forecasts as Hormuz reopening eases supply concerns
Recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has stalled, with daily transits running well below pre-war levels. Two kinetic strikes in 72 hours, including a UAV hit on a non-sanctioned VLCC carrying Qatari crude, have pushed Iran's targeting beyond sanctioned tonnage and prompted the suspension of the IMO evacuation. • • For now, only the U.S.-assisted southern corridor under Project Freedom is keeping limited safe passage open.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the Strait of Hormuz, the mechanism for reopening it, and the resumption of navigation through it are extremely important issues.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the Strait of Hormuz, the mechanism for reopening it, and the resumption of navigation through it are extremely important issues.
Three shipping routes have emerged since the US-Iran agreement
CNN reported that 40 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, citing data from the maritime intelligence company Kepler.
Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal
A company providing ship tracking services: Despite security concerns, vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continued over the weekend In three days, 108 crossings were recorded / Selection
Iran threatens to obstruct the passage of ships sailing outside its designated routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg, citing Kpler data: Approximately 24 cargo ships, including oil and gas tankers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Deputy Foreign Minister: We will not allow any country to demine in the Strait of Hormuz and we will prevent it; we will only do demine ourselves. #Strait_of_Hormuz @IRIBNEWS_COM
Bloomberg, citing Kpler data: Approximately 24 cargo ships, including oil and gas tankers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Russia to import 760,000 barrels of crude oil in May, from the "Sakhalin-2" plant, the first import since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Maritime Organization announces the evacuation of 2,500 sailors and 115 ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
38YES26NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.