Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

ResolvedOutcomes4as of

This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

20+100%
40+100%
80+0%
60+0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

40+News99%match9¢-100%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian position after the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
80+News99%match99¢+1%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian position after the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
60+News99%match78¢+28%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian position after the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
40+Al Jazeera99%match9¢-100%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian response following the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
80+Al Jazeera99%match99¢+1%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian response following the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
60+Al Jazeera99%match78¢+28%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We are awaiting an Iranian response following the attack to allow us to withdraw ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
40+News99%match91¢+10%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after the attack on an oil tanker.
80+News99%match99¢+1%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after the attack on an oil tanker.
60+News99%match78¢+28%
(Al Jazeera) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after the attack on an oil tanker.
40+Al Jazeera99%match91¢+10%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on an oil tanker.
80+Al Jazeera99%match99¢+1%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on an oil tanker.
60+Al Jazeera99%match78¢+28%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Al Jazeera: We have suspended the removal of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on an oil tanker.
40+nypost.com99%match91¢+10%
Live: Iran says it won’t 'allow' other countries to demine the Strait of Hormuz
80+nypost.com99%match99¢+1%
Live: Iran says it won’t 'allow' other countries to demine the Strait of Hormuz
60+nypost.com99%match78¢+28%
Live: Iran says it won’t 'allow' other countries to demine the Strait of Hormuz
40+Sky News Arabia99%match91¢+10%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: There are still about 8,000 seafarers on board 500 ships who need to be evacuated from the Strait of Hormuz.
80+Sky News Arabia99%match99¢+1%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: There are still about 8,000 seafarers on board 500 ships who need to be evacuated from the Strait of Hormuz.
60+Sky News Arabia99%match78¢+28%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: There are still about 8,000 seafarers on board 500 ships who need to be evacuated from the Strait of Hormuz.
40+Sky News Arabia99%match91¢+10%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: Clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines is being done in partnership with countries.
80+Sky News Arabia99%match1¢-100%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: Clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines is being done in partnership with countries.
60+Sky News Arabia99%match22¢-100%
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization told Sky News Arabia: Clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines is being done in partnership with countries.
40+CNN Reporter99%match91¢+10%
The maritime security threat level for the Strait of Hormuz has been raised to “substantial” even as commercial traffic through the waterway remained steady over the last 48 hours, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) in a security report. •
80+CNN Reporter99%match99¢+1%
The maritime security threat level for the Strait of Hormuz has been raised to “substantial” even as commercial traffic through the waterway remained steady over the last 48 hours, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) in a security report. •
40+cnn.com99%match9¢-100%
Live: Strait of Hormuz threat level raised to "substantial," naval advisory body says
80+cnn.com99%match99¢+1%
Live: Strait of Hormuz threat level raised to "substantial," naval advisory body says
60+cnn.com99%match78¢+28%
Live: Strait of Hormuz threat level raised to "substantial," naval advisory body says
40+iranintlbrk99%match9¢-100%
The UN's International Maritime Organization announced that the safe evacuation of more than 8,500 seafarers still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz requires guarantees from the Islamic Republic that their ships will not be targeted.
80+iranintlbrk99%match98¢+2%
The UN's International Maritime Organization announced that the safe evacuation of more than 8,500 seafarers still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz requires guarantees from the Islamic Republic that their ships will not be targeted.
60+iranintlbrk99%match78¢+28%
The UN's International Maritime Organization announced that the safe evacuation of more than 8,500 seafarers still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz requires guarantees from the Islamic Republic that their ships will not be targeted.
40+aljazeera.com99%match91¢+10%
Live: Iran rejects third-party intervention for mine clearance in Strait of Hormuz

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Related events