US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$11.3Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
31 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Iranian media: Tehran rejects discussing the nuclear issue in its response to the US proposal
Trump says a deal between the US and Iran is "very likely" to be reached.
Live: US ‘close to agreement with Iran’
NOAcyn98%match75¢-100%
Trump: Last June, we obliterated the regime's nuclear program After that attack, we sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it. They wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it. They didn't know what was happening. They just wanted…
YESzerohedge98%match36¢+178%
Iran Reportedly Agrees To Give Up Nuclear Material In Breakthrough: 'Peace Deal Within Reach'
YESJennifer Griffin99%match33¢+203%
RT @FaytuksNetwork: BREAKING: Iran agrees to give up stockpile of enriched uranium, a key US demand, in last-minute rapid diplomacy, the Om…
YESAl Jazeera English99%match39¢+156%
“We have begun discussing the semblance of an agreement.” Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi has said the US and Iran have moved closer to reaching an agreement that can avert a war.
NOHuffPost Politics99%match61¢-100%
The email came a day after Iran and the United States walked away from nuclear negotiations without a deal.
YESReuters99%match41¢+144%
The US and Iran made significant progress in talks aimed at resolving a longstanding nuclear dispute and plan to resume negotiations soon, mediator Oman said
NOLeading Report99%match59¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran reportedly rejects all U.S. demands in latest round of nuclear talks, per WSJ.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match60¢-100%
Iran offered to temporarily pause enrichment but rejected the idea of permanently ending enrichment or transferring its stockpile of enriched uranium abroad in negotiations-Al Jazeera.
NOStatus-6 (War & Military News)99%match60¢-100%
Per WSJ, during the talks in Geneva, Iran rejected US proposals on a "nuclear deal": complete dismantling of the nuclear facilities transfer of uranium to the US indefinite cessation of further enrichment
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match60¢-100%
The latest round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program wrapped up Thursday without a deal and both sides still far apart on key issues-WSJ
NOOverton98%match59¢-100%
[Replying to @overton_news] Earlier today, new reports emerged of what the US terms are for a deal with Iran: • Destroy all nuclear sites. • Hand over all enriched uranium to US. • Zero enrichment capability. • Minimal upfront sanction relief. • No sunset clauses, meaning the deal lasts in… >
YESFinancialJuice99%match42¢+138%
Iran's Aragchi: We have entered serious talks about sanctions relief and the nuclear issue.
YESCGTN Europe98%match42¢+138%
Araghchi: ‘We have made good progress and have entered the elements of an agreement in the areas of sanctions and nuclear issues. This was our most serious and longest negotiation period. We have come closer in opinion on many issues, though some differences remain. There is…
YESCGTN Europe98%match42¢+138%
Araghchi: We have made good progress and have entered the elements of an agreement in the areas of sanctions and nuclear issues. This was our most serious and longest negotiation period. We have come closer in opinion on many issues, though some differences remain. There is…
YESJennifer Griffin99%match42¢+138%
RT @badralbusaidi: We have finished the day after significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran. We will resum…
YESCGTN America98%match42¢+138%
GENEVA NUCLEAR TALKS WITH IRAN WERE POSITIVE SAYS AXIOS REPORTER, CITING US OFFICIAL
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match58¢-100%
Gaps in negotiations between the US and Iran are large and the situation does not look great-I24
YESAl Jazeera English98%match42¢+138%
BREAKING: Oman's FM Badr Albusaidi confirms the third round of negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva has come to an end ‘after significant progress.’ LIVE updates:
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News99%match42¢+138%
BREAKING: Oman says round of US-Iran talks concluded 'after significant progress' LIVE updates:
YESFirst Squawk99%match42¢+138%
OMAN SAYS US-IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS IN GENEVA MADE POSITIVE PROGRESS AND BOTH SIDES SHOWED OPENNESS TO NEW AND CREATIVE SOLUTIONS DURING DISCUSSIONS MEDIATED BY OMAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER — STATEMENT IN GENEVA.
NOCGTN Europe99%match58¢-100%
Iran US talks end - Oman FM
NOOSINTdefender98%match60¢-100%
According to Axios, citing a source with knowledge on the matter, White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were reportedly disappointed by the draft proposal that the Iranians presented to Omani mediators yesterday. The evening session is still…
YESFirst Squawk98%match40¢+150%
[Replying to @FirstSquawk] THE US PUSHES FOR A FINAL AGREEMENT AIMED AT FULLY REINING IN IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, SEEKING TO PREVENT ESCALATION AND ENSURE IRANIAN COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR STANDARDS. - WSJ >
YESFinancialJuice99%match42¢+138%
Iran and the US resume nuclear negotiations in Geneva - Tasnim.
YESReuters98%match41¢+144%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Tehran’s opposition to developing nuclear weapons as indirect talks with the United States resumed in Geneva
YESStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match41¢+144%
A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that "important suggestions were raised about both the nuclear program and removal of sanctions" during the US-Iran talks held so far in Geneva today. The talks were "very serious", the spokesperson told Iranian state…
NOPOLITICO99%match59¢-100%
As negotiations to reach a nuclear deal with Iran reach a critical moment, a shift in language from senior Trump admin figures indicates they’re making the case for war. A look at the messaging and what it could signal in today's @playbookdc
YESOSINTdefender99%match40¢+150%
Ahead of tomorrow’s third round of nuclear talks in Geneva between Iran and the United States, mediated by Oman, traders on Polymarket appear to be growing more confident that a new nuclear deal can be decided upon, with the chances of a nuclear agreement between the U.S. and…
Where does the news lean?
93YES45NO30neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
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