US-Iran Hormuz AgreementSeptember 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$446Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
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16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Iranian President: We reached an agreement with Trump. This agreement was signed, and based on it, we are ready and willing to move forward. The general framework has been agreed upon. We did not close the Strait of Hormuz. It was open. Without any legal justification or framework, they attacked us.
Reuters: A proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting sanctions has neither side willing to relinquish the leverage that drives the diplomatic process. Iran is showing flexibility on the tariffs, but is holding firm to its position regarding the Strait of Hormuz. [in reply to: Reuters, citing sources: US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased path to ending the trade war in New York.]
IRAN IS REVIEWING THE US RESPONSE TO ITS PROPOSAL TO END HOSTILITIES, PER A SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL • • Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade were discussed during indirect talks with the US on Tuesday, the official told Reuters. • • Trump said at the United Nations yesterday that he believes the US will make a deal with Iran right after the US election.
Mohammad Rashidi, a member of the Majlis Presidency, said on Thursday, September 16, that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the Islamic Republic's seven conditions in the Islamabad Memorandum are met. Rashidi said that the lifting of sanctions, the lifting of the blockade, and the end of the war are among these conditions. He accused the US of violating the Islamabad Memorandum and said that Washington has continued the naval blockade and sanctions against the Islamic Republic by creating insecurity and attacking areas of Iran. Rashidi also said: "The US should not interfere in the relations of regional countries and issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, and regional issues should be resolved by regional countries."
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, September 13, 1405, answer to question 10: The media is speculating. I am not going to take a position on this issue, because these analyses are numerous and abundant.
But what concerns us and Oman, and is not generally relevant to anyone else, is the issue of the security of the Strait of Hormuz, which concerns the two coastal states. Of course, we are aware of our responsibilities; to the international community and to the region. That is why we say that the countries of the region and the world community must hold America accountable, because everything that is happening now, in terms of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, is the result of America's actions.
The world must see this. This is very clear. You cannot simply address the effect, that is, say that Iran has now imposed measures regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and ignore the cause. The main reason for this situation is the illegal actions of the US and the Zionist regime that have been ongoing since March 23, 1404. It is not that they existed only at one point and ended; the illegal actions of the US continue, and this is the main reason for insecurity.
The fact that the US wants itself or other countries to talk about a certain issue has no effect on our priorities and will. We will do whatever is in the best interest of our national security and whatever is in line with the common interests of the two coastal states. @MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, September 13, 1405, Question 10: A report has been published that the US has told officials from the Persian Gulf countries to apparently adjust the priority of the Strait of Hormuz and focus on nuclear issues for negotiations with Iran. I wanted to ask whether this could have had an impact on the suspension or postponement of the Oman understanding and this meeting? And how could this meeting actually be effective in lifting the naval blockade in the future, if it were to be held in the future, or what role could it play?
@MFAIran]
US Energy Secretary to Bloomberg: No negotiated solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis with Iran... and the US military will not allow it to possess a nuclear weapon. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright to Bloomberg: Relying on a negotiated agreement with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz is not a good bet. Global markets will have to continue relying on alternative solutions for oil transit. Iran's continued non-compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency is concerning. The US military will ensure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
US Energy Secretary to Bloomberg: No negotiated solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis with Iran... and the US military will not allow it to possess a nuclear weapon. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright to Bloomberg: Relying on a negotiated agreement with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz is not a good bet. Global markets will have to continue relying on alternative solutions for oil transit. Iran's continued non-compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency is worrying. The US military will ensure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
U.S. WARNS AGAINST HORMUZ DEAL OPTIMISM • • U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned traders against expecting a quick Strait of Hormuz breakthrough with Iran. • • Alternative routes are supplying about 10 million barrels a day, keeping oil markets tight but manageable. • • Iran plans to propose a temporary shipping lane in Oman on Monday. • • Wright also said Washington prefers negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program but remains prepared to use military force.
US Energy Secretary to oil market traders: Don't bet on a deal with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, September 12, during a trip to Ireland, that the "Iran affair" may end before the US midterm elections, but in any case, it will end after these elections. Regarding the possibility of an agreement with the Islamic Republic, Trump said: "Iran really wants to make a deal. They keep calling and wanting to make a deal, but the deal has to be the right one. I will not accept a deal that is not good." The US President also said about the meeting of the Persian Gulf countries with the Islamic Republic: "I don't care if the Persian Gulf countries meet with Iran; that's up to them." In response to a question about the decision of the US Federal Reserve next week, he also said that the United States should have the lowest interest rate in the world.
New details about the final understanding between Iran and Oman / The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened with this understanding Informed source:
The understanding between Iran and Oman was finalized in early September and will be announced soon in the presence of the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf countries.
The route of entry to the Persian Gulf is completely in Iranian waters and part of the exit route is also in Iranian waters; traffic under Iranian arrangements and the southern route will be closed.
This understanding does not mean the opening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran has announced 7 conditions to the United States and the strait will remain closed until they are implemented./ Mehr @IRIBNEWS_COM
The US President said on Wednesday, September 8, that in his view, the war with Iran will end "immediately" after the US midterm elections. Donald Trump told reporters before leaving for Dallas to attend the Republican Party convention: "I think the war will end immediately after the election. Because they (Iran) can't last anymore." Trump added about the situation in Iran: "They are desperate and they are trying to influence the election." In response to a question about the widespread attacks by both sides around the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: "The attacks were carried out by us. We hit nine of their oil tankers. There are going to be more attacks." @VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
23:31/ September 5
Iran is on the verge of imposing a naval blockade on US allies in the Strait of Hormuz. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council's decision to establish a new restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz is the introduction to this strategy.
U.S.–IRAN ESCALATION • • The U.S. is reportedly striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, while explosions have been reported on Iran’s Qeshm Island. • • As tensions rise, Kalshi puts the odds of a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal before 2029 at just 27%. •
Top Overnight News • • Iran and the United States traded attacks for the first time in over a month overnight into Monday. Iran fired missiles toward US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for a strike on Iranian rocket launchers that the US said were trying to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The exchange of strikes came just days after President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz free from mines and is a break with Washington’s recent shift in focus to maximizing economic pressure on Iran rather than military actions. CNN • • Iranian leaders are acknowledging the economic toll of war with the U.S., with the supreme leader urging the government to address the hardship and the president saying foreign trade has shrunk by a third due to the American sanctions and blockade. Yet Tehran signaled no retreat on Saturday, vowing to withstand U.S. pressure, pursue diplomacy and maintain what it said was control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters • • President Donal Trump said Friday night the United States has reached an oil agreement with Venezuela, a move he said will “more than double” American oil reserves, increase oil supply and lower gas prices. The deal is said to “secure majority control” of more than 65B barrels worth of oil reserves in Venezuela, or ~20% of the country’s total. CNN / FT • • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he will encourage G20 members to re-examine terms of trade with China to shrink global imbalances and press Beijing to rebalance its economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption. Bessent said in an interview ahead of a G20 finance leaders meeting that the current flood of exports from China was unsustainable, even though the U.S. direct trade position with China was "rapidly improving." Reuters • • China’s official manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August, suggesting that momentum has yet to rebound after July’s sharp downturn. BBG • • SK Hynix is exploring a joint venture to make memory chips in Japan to meet surging AI demand, Chairman Chey Tae-won said. BBG • • South Korea’s industrial production for Jul came in ahead of expectations at +0.2% M/M (vs. the Street -0.5%). BBG • • Russia’s Defense Ministry said it is planning “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, days after launching a devastating attack on a warehouse near Kyiv, amplifying fears of another winter assault. CNBC • • September is historically the worst month for Wall St, and traders are preparing for volatility during the coming weeks, with the FOMC meeting on 9/16 potentially a major catalyst. Barron’s
23:46 / September 2
While Donald Trump is practically begging behind the scenes to resume negotiations with Iran, Iran's conditions for negotiations have become stricter. Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until all frozen assets are released and the war on all fronts, including Lebanon and even the West Bank, is stopped. And Iran does not accept any kind of negotiations on the nuclear issue. From Iran's point of view, all 5 conditions stated in Article 13 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding must be fully implemented, and then Iran will begin opening the Strait of Hormuz solely with its own arrangements.
Where does the news lean?
12YES41NO37neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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