US-Iran Hormuz AgreementAugust 15
ResolvedOutcome: No$369Kas of
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US-Iran "unstable stalemate" drags on; deadline for memorandum negotiations passes, but opening of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.
Oil prices rose by about 5 percent on Monday, August 9, after the issue of compensation payments between Iran and the United States was raised and hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. Iran has said that the United States must lift sanctions imposed on Tehran and accept several other conditions in order to reopen the vital waterway. In contrast, US President Donald Trump said that Iran must pay compensation for “all the people it has killed or seriously injured.” The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil ended at $4.17, or 4.99 percent, at $87.72. US West Texas Intermediate crude oil also closed up $3.95, or 5.05 percent, at $82.13 a barrel. The percentage increase in the price of both oil indices was the highest since August 28. Both oil indices had fallen more than 7 percent last week as hopes grew that Iran and Oman were close to an agreement that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
@VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
American Economist: Trump Has No Role in Current Negotiations Between Iran and Oman on Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Steve Haneke, Professor at Johns Hopkins University:
Trump told us that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on Wednesday or Thursday. I don't know why he said that. He was not a negotiator or participant in the negotiations and agreements between Iran and Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, Thursday, only 10 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including only one oil tanker. @iribnews
US President Trump assessed the Iran agenda at a press conference held in the Oval Office: — I think the war will end soon, I don't think they (Iran) can last much longer. — As far as I've been involved in the negotiations, we're doing well right now. An agreement may be reached soon. — (Has an agreement been reached on opening the Strait of Hormuz?) I can't say yet. It's partially open at the moment. We control the strait with a blockade.
"A temporary agreement has been reached to open the Strait of Hormuz," Trump: "The war will end soon"
The Iranian Foreign Ministry reveals some details of the "Hormuz Agreement": 1. Iran will close the northern and southern maritime routes. 2. A temporary shipping lane will be established in the region for a period of two to four months, during which most maritime traffic will pass through Iranian territorial waters. 3. Negotiations must take place during this period regarding the second phase of the "Hormuz Agreement," which includes discussions on maritime fees. 4. The full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the United States lifting the naval blockade and energy sanctions, and unfreezing Iranian assets.
According to 4 regional sources: • - The deal between Oman and Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz by directing all inbound traffic into a route closer to Iran, and all outbound traffic into a route closer to Oman. • - The deal would be announced by Iran, Oman, and the UN's International Maritime Organization @IMOHQ, alongside the US. • - There would be no fees or tolls. • - One of the most important aspects: the agreement would be temporary. • - It's designed to return to the ceasefire and the MOU--restarting a 60-day clock to negotiate deals over Iran's nuclear program, frozen assets, and a permanent arrangement for the Strait. • - Iran expects during that time, it would receive relief to sell oil. • - The arrangement is endorsed by the members of the GCC. The fact that the GCC is willing to even entertain this temporary deal--with an emphasis on temporary--shocks some analysts, since Iran could hypothetically block all imports through the Strait of Hormuz. That goes to show how much the GCC is prioritizing stopping the war over anything else.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz: A proposed deal between Iran and Oman could grant Iranian control over ships that seek to enter the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters quoted a senior Iranian official and two regional officials as saying on Wednesday. However, the sources said that despite US President Trump's words about an imminent deal, there are still important details that need to be negotiated and agreed upon, such as actual control of the strait and the method of paying fees voluntarily. One regional source said that a concession has been made regarding a certain degree of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian source says that the text of the agreement grants Iran some control over ships entering the strait, and a central point of contention concerns Tehran's degree of control over ships sailing in the opposite direction. @itamargalit
babakvahdad: • BREAKING: Iran directly rejects the Axios claim that US-Iran-Oman have a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz today via US announcement, declaring the Strait remains closed and the Iran-Oman agreement "hereby postponed" over US interference, Trump's threats and false characterization, per Sepah News. • • Iran adds Trump "is trying to claim credit for an agreement that is purely with Oman" and that Iran "will not conclude any agreement under the shadow of threats," with Iran state TV adding "Trump is trying to claim credit for something he has no involvement." • • Iran states that "even with an agreement between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz will not open if the United States continues its violations. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent upon a change in US behavior and the correction of its violations."
Axios: US, Iran, Oman on verge of reaching temporary agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz, likely to be announced by US today @IRIBNEWS_COM
The Iranian Broadcasting Corporation (IRCC) quoted an informed source as saying: The possible agreement between Iran and Oman on the arrangements for vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the immediate opening of the strait. The negotiations on the arrangements for vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz are purely Iranian-Omani and have nothing to do with the United States.
If the US violations continue, the Strait of Hormuz will not open even with an agreement between Iran and Oman. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is subject to a change in behavior and correction of the US violations. @YjcNewsChannel [in reply to: Trump's claim: The Strait of Hormuz will open on Wednesday or Thursday The US President, who has been doing his best to keep oil prices low in recent weeks, has this time claimed that it is possible that an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz will be announced "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow." Previously, the Axios website, which is considered a media outlet close to American and Israeli sources, had claimed that a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be announced on Wednesday. @YjcNewsChannel]
Axios: US, Iran, and Oman reach temporary agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz... to solidify truce and resume nuclear talks
Axios claims: Strait of Hormuz deal to be announced on Wednesday Axios news outlet, citing two regional sources and a US official, claimed that a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be announced on Wednesday./Journalists' Club
Axios quotes informed sources: The US, Iran and Oman are on the verge of reaching a "temporary agreement" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz Washington is trying to announce this agreement today According to the agreement, all ships will pass through the northern route in Iranian waters The parties will try to clear the "middle passage of the strait" of naval mines within 30 days It has been claimed that no tolls will be collected for 60 days
Axios claims: Strait of Hormuz deal to be announced Wednesday Axios news outlet, citing two regional sources and a US official, claimed that a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be announced Wednesday. @YjcNewsChannel
FWD from Mehr International: Axios claims: Iran, Oman, US on verge of Hormuz deal Axios, citing an American official, claimed that Iran, the US, and Oman are on the verge of reaching a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US plans to announce the agreement on Wednesday. Informed sources also claimed in a conversation with Axios that the agreement will include the establishment of a temporary mechanism between Iran and Oman in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, which can be extended. All ships entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz must take the northern route and pass through Iranian waters. mehrnews.com/x3cKpp @MehrnewsIntl
Iranian source: "The agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be postponed as long as the US threatens Iran" @migansh5
The US plans to announce an agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz today, - Axios According to sources, a temporary agreement for 60 days will be concluded between Iran and Oman, but it will satisfy some of Tehran's demands. The document contains the following points: all inflow of vessels through the strait into the Persian Gulf will be carried out via the northern route through Iranian waters; all outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea will be carried out via the southern route through Omani waters in coordination with Iran; during a 60-day period, no tolls or other fees will be charged; the parties undertake to begin demining the maritime mine separation zone of the strait within 30 days; after the separation zone is cleared, it will be used for entry and exit traffic in accordance with the terms of a permanent agreement to be agreed between Oman and Iran. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Axios: The US, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching a provisional agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; the US is expected to announce it on the 5th.
The United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Oman are close to a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington plans to announce on Wednesday, Axios reported, citing two regional sources and a US official. According to the report, the 60-day agreement foresees that ships will be allowed to enter Iranian coastal waters and leave Omani waters in coordination with Tehran. No tolls will be collected during this period, and the parties will cooperate to clear naval mines and pave the way for a permanent agreement. Axios added that the agreement would meet some of the Islamic Republic’s demands for greater control over traffic in the strait and could pave the way for a resumption of the ceasefire between Tehran and Washington and nuclear talks. The media outlet also wrote that Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have participated in the mediation process, and the White House has also played an active role in the negotiations through calls from Steve Whittaker, Abbas Araqchi, and Badr Al-Busaidy.
“US Close to Hormuz Deal, Aiming to Announce on Wednesday” Axios, Machine Translation:
US President Donald Trump answers reporters’ questions during a cabinet meeting at Camp David last week. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The US, Iran and Oman are close to reaching a tentative agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US plans to announce the deal on Wednesday, according to two regional sources and a US official.
Why it matters: The deal, which has been under negotiation for weeks, aims to restore a ceasefire between the US and Iran and restart talks on a nuclear deal. President Trump decided on Saturday to back off on his threat to launch a massive bombing campaign in order to allow more time for diplomacy. However, if a deal is not reached soon, Trump may agree to major strikes. The emerging agreement would grant some of Iran’s demands for greater control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz; Control that Iran did not have before the war.
Original news: According to two regional sources, the agreement in question creates a temporary 60-day mechanism between Oman and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, which could be extended. All ships entering the Persian Gulf through the strait will pass through a northern route in Iranian waters. All ships leaving the strait and heading to the Arabian Sea will pass through a southern route in Omani waters, with Iran’s coordination. No tolls or fees will be collected during the 60-day period. The parties will try to clear the middle route of the strait of naval mines within 30 days. Once the middle route is cleared, the route will be used for ship traffic in both directions, based on the terms of a permanent mechanism to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.
Yes, But: The White House, Oman and regional mediators thought they had reached a deal with Iran three weeks ago, but Iran resumed attacks on the ships. This led to two weeks of conflict and a situation close to full-scale war.
Behind the scenes: In addition to the talks between Oman and Iran, officials from Qatar, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were also involved in the mediation efforts, according to regional sources. Regional sources said the White House was actively involved in the talks. There have been several calls in recent days between Trump envoy Steve Whittaker, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, and Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaid. Araqchi agreed to the deal in principle late last week, two regional sources said, but it still needed approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council. A U.S. official and a regional source said Iran’s leadership completed the approval process for the deal on Tuesday.
axios @VahidOnline
Report: US to announce Strait of Hormuz agreement on Wednesday • Axios, citing two regional sources and a US official, reports the US, Iran and Oman are close to a temporary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US planning a Wednesday announcement. The preliminary agreement would satisfy some Iranian demands for traffic-control rights in the strait that Iran did not have before the war. Sources say the arrangement under discussion would be a 60-day temporary mechanism, potentially extendable. (
Axios: The US, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington intends to announce details of an agreement with Iran regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz today. #SocialSky #America #Iran
Axios, citing two regional sources and a US official, said the Islamic Republic, the US and Oman are close to reaching a provisional agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US plans to announce the agreement on Wednesday.
Axios: The United States aims to announce an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
Axios: Washington plans to announce details today of an agreement with Iran regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. nears Hormuz deal, aiming for Wednesday announcement
The U.S., Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement. My report on @axios •
Live from Al Arabiya | 10 PM News Bulletin: Agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within hours... Al Arabiya reveals, Washington confirms
An agreement to regulate the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected within a day or two, and the US clarifies: This is only a temporary arrangement | @nathanguttman reports from Washington #HereNewsEditor with @talberman
US Treasury Secretary: We may reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz today or tomorrow. #AlArabiya_Business
US Treasury Secretary: US and Iran expected to reach agreement on April 4 or 5 to restore free passage through the Strait of Hormuz
Where does the news lean?
194YES26NO46neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
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How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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