US-Iran Hormuz Agreement

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Market pricing makes September 30 the favorite at 11% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .

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September 30alarabiya93%match83¢+7%
Al Arabiya correspondent Pierre Ghanem: Iran announces an agreement with Oman regarding the mechanism for passage through the Strait of Hormuz... Washington dismisses the announcement, stating that more than 22 tankers have already passed through with the assistance of the US Navy.
September 15alarabiya93%match92¢+3%
Al Arabiya correspondent Pierre Ghanem: Iran announces an agreement with Oman regarding the mechanism for passage through the Strait of Hormuz... Washington dismisses the announcement, stating that more than 22 tankers have already passed through with the assistance of the US Navy.
September 30iranintl92%match79¢+13%
Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards, said that after a month of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, Oman and the Islamic Republic reached "agreements" on "the two countries' share of the region's waters and its revenues." At the same time, Reuters news agency quoted senior officials of the Islamic Republic as saying that the agreement with Oman has not yet been finalized. He added that the Strait of Hormuz is now under the control of the Islamic Republic, that "no enemy military vessel" is present in the Persian Gulf, and that no vessel "without Iran's permission and management" can pass through this waterway. He also claimed that the waterway near Oman is also "completely" under the control of the Islamic Republic. In another part of this short interview, Mohabi accused the United States of "sabotaging the negotiation process" with Oman, citing it as the reason for the delay in reaching an agreement. He added: "If the United States abandons its sabotaging and returns to the memorandum of understanding, we can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the understanding reached, so our conditions must be accepted by the United States." Read the rest of the report on the Iran International website.
September 15iranintl91%match87¢+9%
Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards, said that after a month of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, Oman and the Islamic Republic reached "agreements" on "the two countries' share of the region's waters and its revenues." At the same time, Reuters news agency quoted senior officials of the Islamic Republic as saying that the agreement with Oman has not yet been finalized. He added that the Strait of Hormuz is now under the control of the Islamic Republic, that "no enemy military vessel" is present in the Persian Gulf, and that no vessel "without Iran's permission and management" can pass through this waterway. He also claimed that the waterway near Oman is also "completely" under the control of the Islamic Republic. In another part of this short interview, Mohabi accused the United States of "sabotaging the negotiation process" with Oman, citing it as the reason for the delay in reaching an agreement. He added: "If the United States abandons its sabotaging and returns to the memorandum of understanding, we can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the understanding reached, so our conditions must be accepted by the United States." Read the rest of the report on the Iran International website.
September 30alarabiya92%match78¢+14%
Despite the Revolutionary Guard's announcement, an Iranian source denies to Reuters that a final agreement has been reached with Oman regarding the sharing of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian source denied to Reuters that a final agreement had been reached with Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard told Tasnim that an agreement to share the Strait of Hormuz had been reached. The spokesman indicated that the United States is obstructing the negotiation process between Oman and Iran, which has led to its delay. (From Al Arabiya)
September 15alarabiya92%match86¢+10%
Despite the Revolutionary Guard's announcement, an Iranian source denies to Reuters that a final agreement has been reached with Oman regarding the sharing of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian source denied to Reuters that a final agreement had been reached with Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard told Tasnim that an agreement to share the Strait of Hormuz had been reached. The spokesman indicated that the United States is obstructing the negotiation process between Oman and Iran, which has led to its delay. (From Al Arabiya)
September 30entekhab_news92%match20¢-45%
RIA Novosti news agency claims, citing sources: Iran and the US have agreed on a ceasefire that will include freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz The ceasefire is expected to be officially announced in the coming days Negotiations and a round of technical meetings will be held after that
September 15entekhab_news92%match12¢-58%
RIA Novosti news agency claims, citing sources: Iran and the US have agreed on a ceasefire that will include freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz The ceasefire is expected to be officially announced in the coming days Negotiations and a round of technical meetings will be held after that
Russian media claims: Iran and US agree on ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz Pakistani military sources and Iranian security sources have claimed that Tehran and Washington have reached an agreement on a ceasefire; an agreement that, according to these sources, also includes freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. @ilnair
Russian media claims: Iran and US agree on ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz Pakistani military sources and Iranian security sources have claimed that Tehran and Washington have reached an agreement on a ceasefire; an agreement that, according to these sources, also includes freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. @ilnair
September 30Walter Bloomberg93%match20¢-45%
U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE REPORTEDLY NEARS • • The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, with an announcement expected in the coming days, RIA Novosti reported, citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources. • • The reported deal includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed negotiations under the Islamabad Memorandum. • • Neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed the agreement, while Oman and Iran separately proposed a temporary mechanism to restore Strait traffic.
September 15Walter Bloomberg93%match17¢-71%
U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE REPORTEDLY NEARS • • The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, with an announcement expected in the coming days, RIA Novosti reported, citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources. • • The reported deal includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed negotiations under the Islamabad Memorandum. • • Neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed the agreement, while Oman and Iran separately proposed a temporary mechanism to restore Strait traffic.
September 30citrinowicz93%match82¢+9%
However, the central question remains whether the US administration is prepared to accept arrangements that grant Iran a foothold in managing the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously lifting the naval blockade and allowing Iran to resume its oil exports. Without a US willingness to compromise on these two issues, any agreement between Oman and Iran will remain of limited significance. It may technically regulate navigation in the strait, but it will not address the core of the crisis, nor will it guarantee the strait's full and stable opening. #iran
September 15citrinowicz93%match90¢+6%
However, the central question remains whether the US administration is prepared to accept arrangements that grant Iran a foothold in managing the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously lifting the naval blockade and allowing Iran to resume its oil exports. Without a US willingness to compromise on these two issues, any agreement between Oman and Iran will remain of limited significance. It may technically regulate navigation in the strait, but it will not address the core of the crisis, nor will it guarantee the strait's full and stable opening. #iran
September 30dolfiniran94%match85¢+5%
23:46 / September 2 While Donald Trump is practically begging behind the scenes to resume negotiations with Iran, Iran's conditions for negotiations have become stricter. Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until all frozen assets are released and the war on all fronts, including Lebanon and even the West Bank, is stopped. And Iran does not accept any kind of negotiations on the nuclear issue. From Iran's point of view, all 5 conditions stated in Article 13 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding must be fully implemented, and then Iran will begin opening the Strait of Hormuz solely with its own arrangements.
September 15dolfiniran94%match93¢+2%
23:46 / September 2 While Donald Trump is practically begging behind the scenes to resume negotiations with Iran, Iran's conditions for negotiations have become stricter. Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until all frozen assets are released and the war on all fronts, including Lebanon and even the West Bank, is stopped. And Iran does not accept any kind of negotiations on the nuclear issue. From Iran's point of view, all 5 conditions stated in Article 13 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding must be fully implemented, and then Iran will begin opening the Strait of Hormuz solely with its own arrangements.
September 30iranintl92%match83¢+7%
On Monday, September 2nd, US President Donald Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social: "Iran is completely collapsing." He previously published a report from Newsmax about Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf's remarks in Iraq and republished the headline of the report: "Speaker of the Iranian Parliament: We are hungry, we cannot survive." US Treasury Secretary Scott Basnet is scheduled to announce new US sanctions against the Islamic Republic on Monday.
August 31Russian Media92%match97¢+3%
Donald Trump has reposted an image on Truth Social that describes the Strait of Hormuz as "new US territory." Trump previously posted the same image on August 18. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, following the American president's post, said he was mistaken and promised to correct this "misconception" soon. Trump announced his plans to declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory on August 14. At the time, the head of the White House said that the announcement would come after the end of the war with Iran. RBK Channel on "Max" RBK app for iOS and Android
August 31iranintl92%match92¢+9%
Two days after the 60-day deadline for an agreement expired, Qalibaf made the opening of the Strait of Hormuz conditional on the fulfillment of five conditions and said Tehran was ready for war. Modern Diplomacy magazine, assessing intelligence data, said the US and Israel are likely to attack Iran two weeks before the elections. Report by Mojtaba Pourmohsen
August 31iranintl92%match92¢+9%
As the 60-day deadline for the US and the Islamic Republic to reach an agreement expires, Donald Trump said the US is not looking to extend the agreement. Speaking to reporters, the US President reiterated his interest in the idea of ​​declaring the Strait of Hormuz as US territory.
August 31iranintl94%match89¢+12%
With the 60-day deadline set in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding for Tehran and Washington to reach a comprehensive agreement ending inconclusively, Donald Trump said that the Islamic Republic wants an agreement, but is not willing to accept the conditions set by the United States. He stressed that Washington has no intention of extending the Memorandum of Understanding. Trump also referred to the Strait of Hormuz and said that the United States could declare this waterway its territory if it wished. Reported by Amir Giti, a correspondent for Iran International.
August 31alarabiya93%match88¢+14%
With the 60-day deadline expiring, the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz is undermining the prospects of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. The Trump administration is shifting its priority from saving the agreement to increasing the cost of rejection for Iran.
August 31Walter Bloomberg96%match88¢+14%
US-IRAN DEAL DEADLINE EXPIRES • • The 60-day deadline for a U.S.-Iran agreement has expired without a final deal, leaving both sides divided over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. • • Attention now turns to Iran-Oman negotiations over shipping through Hormuz. • • Iran says a preliminary “transit route map” has been agreed with Oman, but no final agreement has been signed. • • Resolving Hormuz could unlock broader negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
August 31news.tv-asahi.co.jp92%match88¢+14%
US-Iran negotiations to end fighting reach deadline; "Memorandum of Understanding" becomes meaningless; stalemate over Strait of Hormuz.
August 31cbseveningnews94%match89¢+12%
The June ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire Monday. On Friday, President Trump repeated his claim that Iran will be defeated "very soon" and said he wants the Strait of Hormuz to be a U.S. territory. Iran responded, calling the president's claims "delusions."
August 15sankei.com93%match100¢
US-Iran "unstable stalemate" drags on; deadline for memorandum negotiations passes, but opening of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.
August 31sankei.com94%match89¢+12%
US-Iran "unstable stalemate" drags on; deadline for memorandum negotiations passes, but opening of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.
August 31alhadath93%match89¢+12%
Complete stalemate as the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US expires... and Tehran announces a maritime agreement with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz
August 31alarabytv93%match89¢+12%
US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz American territory, following what he described as Iran's defeat. He asserted that the United States is imposing a blockade on Iranian ports and that ships will not pass through the strait unless Washington permits them to do so.
August 31aljazeera.com92%match76¢+32%
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic drops to six as US-Iran peace deal hopes fade

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

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