Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?European Union

OpenVol$13KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO93¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOIran Semi-Official Fars91%match91¢+2%
Trump's tariff war with 60 trading partners begins The US government issued an official statement this morning announcing the imposition of new customs tariffs on imported goods from 60 countries and regions. These tariffs, which are set at between 10 and 12.5 percent, were announced as a replacement for the temporary 10 percent tariff that Trump had previously imposed and expired hours ago; major economies such as China, India and the European Union are subject to this new measure. According to the announcement of the Office of the United States Trade Representative, these tariffs were designed and implemented under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and with the claim of "combating forced labor" in the supply chains of the target countries. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: Trump's new trade war with 60 countries of the world The US President is finalizing new tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent against about 60 countries; The move, which is being taken on the grounds of "forced labor," could also target major partners such as the European Union. These tariffs are set to replace temporary 10 percent tariffs that were imposed after the US Supreme Court overturned some of Trump's previous tariffs. In recent days, the US has also imposed 25 percent tariffs on some Brazilian products and 50 percent on a number of Canadian goods. The Financial Times reported that this decision comes as gasoline prices in the US have exceeded $4 per gallon. Experts warn that the escalation of the trade war could put further pressure on American consumers by increasing the cost of imports. @Farsna - Link]
NOIran State News Agency99%match90¢+3%
Spain's response to Trump's trade threat: Bilateral restrictions are not possible El Diario website: In response to the US President's latest threat to "completely" halt bilateral trade between the two countries, the Spanish government announced that trade relations with the entire European Union are in place and cannot be applied separately to each member state. @IRNA_1313
NOfirstsquawk99%match83¢+12%
EUROPEAN UNION ⁠ ⁠TRADE COMMISSIONER: WE AGREED WITH UNITED STATES TO FURTHER ADVANCE WORK ON CRITICAL MINERALS
NOBloomberg99%match78¢+19%
Geopolitical trade tensions are once again running high with the European Union freezing the ratification process of its agreement with the United States: Here's your European Evening Briefing
NOBloomberg98%match78¢+19%
The European Union froze ratification of its US trade deal until President Donald Trump solidifies his upended tariff plans, injecting economic turbulence into an already strained relationship.
NO*Walter Bloomberg99%match78¢+19%
EU SET TO HALT US TRADE DEAL APPROVAL OVER TRUMP TARIFF RISK The European Union is set to pause approval of its trade deal with the US, seeking clarity on new tariffs introduced by Donald Trump after a court ruling limited his earlier tariff powers. Major groups in the European…
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match78¢+19%
The European Union is poised to freeze the ratification process of its trade deal with the U.S-Bloomberg Wow...
NOSolid Intel 📡98%match78¢+19%
INTEL: European Union to freeze approval of U.S. trade deal amid risks tied to Trump’s tariff policy
NOFirst Squawk98%match78¢+19%
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT’S TRADE CHIEF WILL PROPOSE FREEZING THE RATIFICATION PROCESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S TRADE DEAL WITH THE US UNTIL THEY’VE RECEIVED DETAILS FROM PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP’S ADMINISTRATION ON ITS TRADE POLICY
NOBloomberg98%match78¢+19%
The European Parliament’s trade chief will propose freezing the ratification process of the European Union’s trade deal with the US until they’ve received details from President Donald Trump’s administration on its trade policy
YESRapid Response 4798%match25¢-72%
President Trump has now secured trade agreements with major U.S. trading partners covering more than half of global GDP: Argentina Bangladesh Cambodia China Ecuador El Salvador European Union Guatemala India Indonesia Israel Japan …
NOFirst Squawk98%match75¢+24%
MACRON SAYS US TARIFFS ON EUROPE ECONOMY A COERCION MECHANISM
YESBloomberg98%match25¢-72%
The European Parliament is moving closer to approving a trade deal with the US after senior lawmakers agreed to make some changes ahead of a vote planned this month.
YESPolymarket99%match26¢-73%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 26% chance a trade deal is reached this year. > BREAKING: The EU Parliament has agreed to resume work on implementing the trade deal between the EU and US.
YESBloomberg99%match35¢-80%
European Union lawmakers are expected to vote on ratifying the bloc’s trade deal with the US, restarting the process after President Donald Trump walked back his latest threat to impose tariffs on European allies that opposed his plans to annex Greenland
NOWatcher.Guru98%match66¢+41%
JUST IN: European Union officially suspends trade deal with the US.
NOFinancialJuice99%match66¢+41%
MEP Bernd Lange: European Parliament freezes work on EU-US trade deal.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match66¢+41%
The European Union has postponed a vote on approving its trade agreement with the United States.
NOBloomberg98%match66¢+41%
The US-EU trade deal hangs in the balance as Trump tests European unity on Greenland
NOzerohedge99%match69¢+35%
*LUTNICK: CAN DISAGREE WITH ALLIES, DOESN'T MAKE THEM NOT ALLIES *LUTNICK: I DON'T SEE EUROPEAN TRADE DEAL CHANGING *LUTNICK: OUR RATES ARE HUNDREDS OF BASIS POINTS TOO HIGH

Where does the news lean?

9YES35NO4neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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