Russia x Ukraine peace talksOctober 31

OpenVol$338KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES8¢
NO93¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NORussian news outlet Agentstvo95%match75¢+23%
Moscow and Washington have acknowledged their refusal to hold negotiations on Ukraine expected in October. There are currently no current plans for US-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on Wednesday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated in an interview published on Thursday that there are no prospects for ending the war in Ukraine through negotiations. Before the State Duma elections, Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow considered the possibility of resuming trilateral contacts in October. Details. Ryabkov stated that "contacts in this format existed in the past; they were interrupted by Kiev." Quote: "There are currently no current plans to hold contacts in this format. What happens next doesn't depend on us," Ryabkov said. The Deputy Foreign Minister added that "the leadership has repeatedly stated that we are open to such contacts." On Thursday, the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published an interview with Rubio. The US Secretary of State stated that "at this point, there appears to be no prospect of a negotiated settlement." "We have tried in the past, but so far this goal remains elusive, as Russia is conditioned on full control of the Donetsk region, which is unacceptable for Ukraine. We remain ready to play a constructive role in achieving a diplomatic solution," Rubio stated. How the negotiations were discussed. In an interview with The New York Times in early September, Kirill Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, stated that negotiations mediated by the Donald Trump administration were expected to resume by the end of September, a few days after the parliamentary elections in Russia and a few weeks before the midterm elections in the United States. On September 7, the Elysée Palace, citing a White House statement, stated that Moscow had expressed its readiness to resume negotiations after the elections. On September 12, Budanov announced that the next round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States could take place in October. The day after Budanov's second statement, the Kremlin confirmed the White House and Kyiv's announcements of a resumption of negotiations after the State Duma elections. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that trilateral talks on Ukraine could resume in October, while Vladimir Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Moscow considers Abu Dhabi a "completely acceptable" venue for them. However, after the elections, the Russian authorities' rhetoric changed. On September 25, Putin indicated that the negotiations expected in October might not begin. He cited Ukrainian attacks during the vote and stated that Ukraine must "feel the blows in return." Meanwhile, a representative of the Ukrainian negotiating team who participated in a meeting with Trump's envoys in Kyiv in September told The Atlantic that American negotiators intend to organize a meeting of US, Russian, and Ukrainian representatives by the end of October, most likely in Abu Dhabi (the publication was published on September 29). According to Ukrainian negotiators, the UAE planned to discuss the terms of a limited ceasefire, including an end to attacks on energy infrastructure and cargo ships in the Black Sea. Ukrainian officials told The Atlantic they don't believe serious negotiations with Russia are possible before spring, citing Moscow's expectation of a long-range strike campaign against Ukraine this coming winter. "Putin isn't stockpiling missiles for no reason; he intends to use them this winter," said one official in Volodymyr Zelenskyy's administration. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
YESRFE/RL Reporter93%match37¢-78%
NEW!! U.S. officials are proposing a trilateral technical-level meeting with Ukraine and Russia by the end of October, Zelenskyy says. • • Kyiv says it is ready to participate and is open to the UAE or another venue proposed by Washington
YESIran State News Agency95%match40¢-80%
Ukraine ready to participate in trilateral talks with the US and Russia The Ukrainian president said on Sunday that the US plans to hold a new round of trilateral talks with Kiev and Moscow by the end of October to end the four-and-a-half-year war. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
YESRussian Media95%match39¢-79%
The American negotiating team proposed holding a trilateral meeting "at the technical level" with Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "Yesterday I spoke with the American negotiating team. The American side is contacting Ukraine and Russia today and is proposing to hold a meeting by the end of October at the technical level in a trilateral format," he said. Zelenskyy confirmed Kyiv's readiness for negotiations. Moscow has previously repeatedly stated its readiness for dialogue. On October 1, Vladimir Putin noted that it would be better to end the Ukrainian conflict on terms acceptable to Russia in order to avoid further losses on both sides.
YESRussian Media95%match39¢-79%
The American negotiating team proposed holding a trilateral meeting "at the technical level" with Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "Yesterday I spoke with the American negotiating team. The American side is contacting Ukraine and Russia today and is proposing to hold a meeting before the end of October at the technical level in a trilateral format," he said. Zelenskyy said he confirmed Kyiv's readiness for negotiations. Moscow has previously repeatedly stated its readiness for dialogue. On October 1, Vladimir Putin noted that it would be better to end the Ukrainian conflict on terms acceptable to Russia in order to avoid new losses on both sides. RBC Channel on "Max"
YESKyiv City Military Administration94%match37¢-78%
FWD from Zelenskiy / Official: Yesterday I spoke with the American negotiating team. The American side is in contact with Ukraine and Russia today and offers to hold a meeting by the end of October at a technical level in a trilateral format. Yesterday I confirmed to them that our side is ready to support until the end of October. There is no new information here. We are open to the United Arab Emirates or another country proposed by the American side. I know that they will offer this to the Russian side as well - or have already offered it. We will wait for an answer. We react positively to the negotiations. From communication with media representatives together with Friedrich Merz. (3/3)
YESIran Semi-Official Tasnim91%match37¢-78%
Zelensky: US is preparing to hold trilateral talks Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: The US wants to hold trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine by the end of October. @TasnimNews
YESUkraine President Zelensky93%match38¢-79%
Yesterday, I spoke with the American negotiating team. Today, the American side is in contact with both Ukraine and Russia and is proposing a trilateral meeting at the technical level by the end of October. • • Yesterday, I confirmed to them that our side is ready to support holding such a meeting by the end of October. There is no new information here. We are open to the United Arab Emirates or another country proposed by the American side. • • I know they will propose this to the Russian side as well, or may have already done so. We will wait for the response. We respond positively to negotiations. • • From the press conference with Friedrich Merz. (3/3)
YESlefigaro.fr92%match40¢-80%
War in Ukraine: The United States wants to organize trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine at the end of October, announces Volodymyr Zelensky
YESfranceinfo.fr93%match36¢-78%
Live: #UKRAINE Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announces that the United States plans to hold trilateral talks with Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the end of October to find a solution to the conflict...
YESUkrainian Media93%match42¢-81%
The United States plans to organize a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia in October to achieve an energy truce, — The Atlantic This plan is being promoted by US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, a member of the Ukrainian team of negotiators said. The meeting will most likely take place in Abu Dhabi. The Americans want Kyiv and Moscow to commit not to strike energy infrastructure, including power plants and refineries. A separate agreement, signed with the support of Egypt, would provide for a moratorium on mutual strikes on cargo ships in the Black Sea, especially those carrying grain to markets in the Middle East and Africa. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
YESBelarus State News Agency94%match49¢-84%
The Kremlin has allowed for the resumption of trilateral talks on Ukraine in October.
YESRussian news outlet Agentstvo97%match49¢-84%
The Kremlin confirmed reports from the White House and Kyiv about resumption of talks after the State Duma elections Trilateral talks on Ukraine may resume in October, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday. The day before, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Kirill Budanov, spoke about this. Previously, the French authorities, citing the White House, reported that Moscow would be ready for talks after the State Duma elections. In order to resume negotiations, Moscow changed its conditions for resuming talks. Details. Peskov was asked to answer the question of whether the talks could take place in October. Quote. "Yes, we do not rule out this possibility. We are talking specifically about the foreseeable future. That is, of course, presumably October. "October cannot be ruled out," Peskov said (quoted by TASS). The possibility of a trilateral meeting was discussed during the visit to Russia of American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Peskov said. The UAE could be the venue for the talks. Vladimir Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said that Moscow considers this venue "quite acceptable," confirming that Abu Dhabi has confirmed its readiness to provide it for meetings between representatives of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. On Saturday, Budanov announced that the next round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States could take place in October. "We are preparing. For October," Budanov said, answering journalists' questions. On Friday, it became known that the Kremlin no longer makes the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas a condition for resuming trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. In May, Vladimir Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said that without this step, a new round would be meaningless, while Dmitry Peskov called it a condition for moving to full-fledged negotiations. On Friday, Peskov stated that "we are not setting conditions for the negotiations themselves" (more details). Context. On Monday, the Elysee Palace, citing a White House statement, said Moscow had expressed its readiness to resume talks after the elections. Last ​​week, in an interview with The New York Times, Budanov said that talks mediated by the Donald Trump administration were expected to resume by the end of September, a few days after parliamentary elections in Russia and a few weeks before the midterm elections in the United States. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / mailing list
YESiranintlbrk97%match45¢-82%
Reuters news agency quoted the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration as saying that Kiev is preparing to resume trilateral talks aimed at resolving the more than four and a half year war with Russia in October (next month).
YESbbc.co.uk91%match51¢-84%
Peace talks rich in symbolism but fundamental differences between Russia and Ukraine remain
YESnikkei95%match51¢-84%
Ukraine peace talks "restart," but are expected to be difficult with no good solution in sight; Russia is aiming for practical gains.
YESnikkei.com95%match51¢-84%
Ukraine peace talks "restart," but are expected to be difficult due to a lack of a clear solution; Russia is aiming for its own gain.

Where does the news lean?

69YES1NO27neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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