Russia x Ukraine peace talksOctober 15
Resolved$167Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Moscow and Washington have acknowledged their refusal to hold negotiations on Ukraine expected in October. There are currently no current plans for US-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on Wednesday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated in an interview published on Thursday that there are no prospects for ending the war in Ukraine through negotiations. Before the State Duma elections, Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow considered the possibility of resuming trilateral contacts in October. Details. Ryabkov stated that "contacts in this format existed in the past; they were interrupted by Kiev." Quote: "There are currently no current plans to hold contacts in this format. What happens next doesn't depend on us," Ryabkov said. The Deputy Foreign Minister added that "the leadership has repeatedly stated that we are open to such contacts." On Thursday, the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published an interview with Rubio. The US Secretary of State stated that "at this point, there appears to be no prospect of a negotiated settlement." "We have tried in the past, but so far this goal remains elusive, as Russia is conditioned on full control of the Donetsk region, which is unacceptable for Ukraine. We remain ready to play a constructive role in achieving a diplomatic solution," Rubio stated. How the negotiations were discussed. In an interview with The New York Times in early September, Kirill Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, stated that negotiations mediated by the Donald Trump administration were expected to resume by the end of September, a few days after the parliamentary elections in Russia and a few weeks before the midterm elections in the United States. On September 7, the Elysée Palace, citing a White House statement, stated that Moscow had expressed its readiness to resume negotiations after the elections. On September 12, Budanov announced that the next round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States could take place in October. The day after Budanov's second statement, the Kremlin confirmed the White House and Kyiv's announcements of a resumption of negotiations after the State Duma elections. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that trilateral talks on Ukraine could resume in October, while Vladimir Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Moscow considers Abu Dhabi a "completely acceptable" venue for them. However, after the elections, the Russian authorities' rhetoric changed. On September 25, Putin indicated that the negotiations expected in October might not begin. He cited Ukrainian attacks during the vote and stated that Ukraine must "feel the blows in return." Meanwhile, a representative of the Ukrainian negotiating team who participated in a meeting with Trump's envoys in Kyiv in September told The Atlantic that American negotiators intend to organize a meeting of US, Russian, and Ukrainian representatives by the end of October, most likely in Abu Dhabi (the publication was published on September 29). According to Ukrainian negotiators, the UAE planned to discuss the terms of a limited ceasefire, including an end to attacks on energy infrastructure and cargo ships in the Black Sea. Ukrainian officials told The Atlantic they don't believe serious negotiations with Russia are possible before spring, citing Moscow's expectation of a long-range strike campaign against Ukraine this coming winter. "Putin isn't stockpiling missiles for no reason; he intends to use them this winter," said one official in Volodymyr Zelenskyy's administration. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
Witkoff touts ‘substantive progress’ after peace talks with Ukraine, Russia
Ukraine peace talks "restart," but are expected to be difficult with no good solution in sight; Russia is aiming for practical gains.
Ukraine peace talks "restart," but are expected to be difficult due to a lack of a clear solution; Russia is aiming for its own gain.
Where does the news lean?
17YES2NO20neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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