Russia x Ukraine peace talksDecember 31

OpenVol$364KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES30¢
NO71¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOlivesquawk91%match24¢+192%
NEW with @AlbertoNardelli • • — European and US officials are resigned to Russia’s war in Ukraine continuing into next year, acknowledging the latest Witkoff-Kushner peace initiative made no headway with Putin • • — Putin is intent on stepping up attacks on Ukraine through the winter, testing its resistance and the resolve of Kyiv’s allies, according to European officials familiar with the matter • • — Putin showed no sign of softening his positions despite recent US signalling to Moscow that new ideas are needed to revive stalled peace talks, the officials said • • — Russia’s plan for the next six months is to intensify strikes on Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure to try to make life unbearable for civilians, and to step up hybrid attacks and political interference in Europe to try to undermine support for Kyiv, one of the people said • • — Putin has bet that he can emerge next spring with a stronger hand while keeping Russia’s increasingly strained economy above water, the person said. Trilateral talks may resume after Russia’s State Duma elections but are unlikely to move the dial. Serious negotiations are unlikely until at least next year, said another person • • — Putin used the Witkoff-Kushner visit to project strength domestically ahead of the Duma elections, one of the people said. He kept the US delegation waiting until evening before meeting them, leaving Witkoff and Kushner to have an hours-long lunch with Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev at a Moscow restaurant, the person added • • — Ukraine’s allies must respond by prioritising supplies of air-defence interceptors to help Kyiv defend itself, the people said. The UK and others began to do so today, committing to providing Ukraine with more Patriot missiles before winter • •
NOBloomberg Reporter91%match24¢+192%
NEW with @AlbertoNardelli • • — European and US officials are resigned to Russia’s war in Ukraine continuing into next year, acknowledging the latest Witkoff-Kushner peace initiative made no headway with Putin • • — Putin is intent on stepping up attacks on Ukraine through the winter, testing its resistance and the resolve of Kyiv’s allies, according to European officials familiar with the matter • • — Putin showed no sign of softening his positions despite recent US signalling to Moscow that new ideas are needed to revive stalled peace talks, the officials said • • — Russia’s plan for the next six months is to intensify strikes on Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure to try to make life unbearable for civilians, and to step up hybrid attacks and political interference in Europe to try to undermine support for Kyiv, one of the people said • • — Putin has bet that he can emerge next spring with a stronger hand while keeping Russia’s increasingly strained economy above water, the person said. Trilateral talks may resume after Russia’s State Duma elections but are unlikely to move the dial. Serious negotiations are unlikely until at least next year, said another person • • — Putin used the Witkoff-Kushner visit to project strength domestically ahead of the Duma elections, one of the people said. He kept the US delegation waiting until evening before meeting them, leaving Witkoff and Kushner to have an hours-long lunch with Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev at a Moscow restaurant, the person added • • — Ukraine’s allies must respond by prioritising supplies of air-defence interceptors to help Kyiv defend itself, the people said. The UK and others began to do so today, committing to providing Ukraine with more Patriot missiles before winter • •
YESfoxnews91%match63¢-52%
A renewed push to end the war in Ukraine is underway as U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner return from back-to-back talks with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying they are "feeling good" about the prospects for peace. • • Kushner says President Trump has tasked the pair with creating a peace package and that they will do everything they can to end the war for good. • • However, major hurdles remain. Russia and Ukraine continue exchanging strikes, while Zelenskyy says any agreement must end the war on fair terms.
YESbbc.co.uk91%match65¢-54%
Peace talks rich in symbolism but fundamental differences between Russia and Ukraine remain
YESnikkei95%match65¢-54%
Ukraine peace talks "restart," but are expected to be difficult with no good solution in sight; Russia is aiming for practical gains.

Where does the news lean?

13YES3NO10neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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