Iran leadership changeSeptember 30
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The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
More than seven months after the assassinations of key figures in Iran's power structure, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has chosen his men to lead the military establishment, and reports indicate the formation of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
Iran: A statement from the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, regarding the funeral of the martyred commander and important national issues will be released shortly.
Live: Where is the new supreme leader?
Iran: New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei announces revenge
Italian researcher: The legacy of Iran's martyred leader goes beyond the country's internal borders Giulio Chinappi, a researcher at the Italian Center for Eurasian and Mediterranean Studies (CeSEM), wrote in an exclusive note for IRNA: At a moment when the Iranian nation is in mourning, the legacy of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must be considered beyond the borders of Iran's internal politics. His leadership embodied the defense of national sovereignty, resistance to imperialist pressures, and the belief that independence remains the foundation of any just international order. His response was based on strategic patience, domestic resilience, and resistance. During his leadership, Iran faced waves of sanctions, repeated military threats, assassinations of scientists and commanders, sabotage operations, media warfare, and attempts to isolate the country from the international system. However, Iran did not collapse, did not become a dependent state, and did not surrender its sovereignty. #Must_Stand Up
#The_Martyr_of_Iran's_Mr._Raqqa @IRNA_1313
Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi has directed that official working hours be suspended tomorrow, Wednesday, coinciding with the funeral procession for the religious authority, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Husseini al-Khamenei
Iran: Analysts told Al-Mayadeen: The martyred leader Khamenei focused on moral values, and his life story speaks of his asceticism, simplicity, and closeness to everyone.
Iran: Analysts told Al-Mayadeen: The martyred leader Khamenei focused on moral values, and his life story speaks of his asceticism, simplicity, and closeness to everyone.
May God bless the great nation of Iran. After three days of farewell and a magnificent funeral, today the body of our martyred leader left us and Tehran forever; but this is not the end of the road, but rather the beginning of a new chapter for us. From today, we will strive more than ever to realize his intentions and the lofty ideals of the Islamic Revolution and the late Imam, and for the pride of our beloved Iran, and live with his memories.
A final farewell to the leader who was the soul of Iran @iribnews
Iran: CNN reports that Tehran's streets are packed to capacity with participants in the Supreme Leader's funeral procession.
Our correspondent in Iran: The Iranian people today reaffirm their commitment to the principles and achievements of the revolution and their determination to avenge the assassination of the martyr, Mr. Khamenei.
[On-the-ground coverage of Iran - latest information] Intense fervor and amplified "hostility"... Even children say "Revenge is necessary" - Third day of funeral for former Supreme Leader Khamenei, who died in an attack by the United States and Israel.
Live: Middle East crisis live: Funeral procession for Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei begins in Iran
Iran: Analysts to Al-Mayadeen: Martyr Sayyid Khamenei was an international leader who had a profound impact on regional and international equations.
Iran: Iranian TV: All of Iran stands to bid farewell to its leader, and the number of mourners is increasing every moment.
Yemeni official: Ayatollah Khamenei is the leader who guided the details of history and events to victory Member of the Supreme Political Council of Yemen:
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the martyred leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, is the leader who shaped the details of history and events and guided them from complex situations to clear and decisive victories. The martyrdom of this great leader has united the nation and people of Iran and united the opposition alongside the homeland in defending Iran. isna.ir/xdWGH5
@isna94
Where does the news lean?
20YES13NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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