Iran leadership changeJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$4.4Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
"Iranian negotiators have said they are awaiting the green light from the Supreme Leader," the regional source said.
Iran negotiators work under supreme leader’s ‘direction’ - senior Iranian official
Iran’s new supreme leader is nowhere to be seen. That might be helping the regime to survive
Maher Mazhar to Al-Masirah: We salute the trustworthy leadership of Iran and the Iranian people, and we pray for the soul of the martyred Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and all the martyred leaders in Iran.
The Iranian president: All decision-making centers are united under the guidance of the Supreme Leader in the matter of war and its management in a spirit of unity and solidarity.
The Iranian president: All decision-making centers are united under the guidance of the Supreme Leader in the matter of war and its management in a spirit of unity and solidarity.
Iran emphasizes internal unity and rejects interference in leadership appointments.
Iran emphasizes internal unity and rejects interference in leadership appointments.
Where does the news lean?
0YES10NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for Iran leadership change — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.