Iran leadership changeAugust 31
Open$1.6Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
More than seven months after the assassinations of key figures in Iran's power structure, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has chosen his men to lead the military establishment, and reports indicate the formation of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
Where does the news lean?
1YES9NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Iran leadership change — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.