Iran leadership changeDecember 31
Open$4.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES16¢
NO85¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Where is the new supreme leader?
Iran: New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei announces revenge
Live: An absent supreme leader puts Iran in unchartered territory
Italian researcher: The legacy of Iran's martyred leader goes beyond the country's internal borders Giulio Chinappi, a researcher at the Italian Center for Eurasian and Mediterranean Studies (CeSEM), wrote in an exclusive note for IRNA: At a moment when the Iranian nation is in mourning, the legacy of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must be considered beyond the borders of Iran's internal politics. His leadership embodied the defense of national sovereignty, resistance to imperialist pressures, and the belief that independence remains the foundation of any just international order. His response was based on strategic patience, domestic resilience, and resistance. During his leadership, Iran faced waves of sanctions, repeated military threats, assassinations of scientists and commanders, sabotage operations, media warfare, and attempts to isolate the country from the international system. However, Iran did not collapse, did not become a dependent state, and did not surrender its sovereignty. #Must_Stand Up
#The_Martyr_of_Iran's_Mr._Raqqa @IRNA_1313
Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi has directed that official working hours be suspended tomorrow, Wednesday, coinciding with the funeral procession for the religious authority, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Husseini al-Khamenei
Iran: CNN reports that Tehran's streets are packed to capacity with participants in the Supreme Leader's funeral procession.
Our correspondent in Iran: The Iranian people today reaffirm their commitment to the principles and achievements of the revolution and their determination to avenge the assassination of the martyr, Mr. Khamenei.
Live: Middle East crisis live: Funeral procession for Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei begins in Iran
Iran: Analysts to Al-Mayadeen: Martyr Sayyid Khamenei was an international leader who had a profound impact on regional and international equations.
Iran: Iranian TV: All of Iran stands to bid farewell to its leader, and the number of mourners is increasing every moment.
Yemeni official: Ayatollah Khamenei is the leader who guided the details of history and events to victory Member of the Supreme Political Council of Yemen:
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the martyred leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, is the leader who shaped the details of history and events and guided them from complex situations to clear and decisive victories. The martyrdom of this great leader has united the nation and people of Iran and united the opposition alongside the homeland in defending Iran. isna.ir/xdWGH5
@isna94
The British newspaper The Daily Telegraph reported that this change is occurring in a situation where the Zionist regime and the United States, in a joint crime, invaded Iranian soil on February 28 (March 28) and martyred the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iranian military and civilian commanders. 2/2
Nournews: Iran Says All Key Decisions Require Supreme Leader’s Permission as He Oversees Developments
Nournews: Iran Says All Key Decisions Require Supreme Leader’s Permission as He Oversees Developments
Iran's Assembly of Experts: Our negotiating team is working according to the guidelines set by the highest institutions and under the supervision of the Supreme Leader.
Traders on Polymarket remain skeptical about further changes in Iranian leadership by the end of the year, despite reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei continues to suffer from serious injuries he sustained during initial strikes during the Iran War and repeated threats by both Israel and the United States. Chances that Mojtaba is removed from power by December 31, 2026, currently sit at roughly 40%.
Iran's Supreme Leader delivered a speech: The Iranian people have built a national defense line and dealt a heavy blow to the enemy.
NOAPws98%match37¢+127%
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s new supreme leader issues a rare statement, sends condolences for slain top security official Larijani
Iran's new supreme leader vows revenge on U.S., Israel
NONews98%match36¢+133%
Iran's new supreme leader believed to be 'lightly wounded' in attacks - report
Where does the news lean?
25YES43NO14neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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