Iran leadership changeMarch 13
ResolvedOutcome: No$3.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
45 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Iranian leader alive and well, says foreign minister
#Breaking | US Secretary of Defense: The Iranian leadership is in a state of desperation, and the new Supreme Leader released a weak statement without a photo.
U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY HEGSETH ON IRAN: LEADERSHIP HAS GONE UNDEGROUND
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei releases personal photos
This is what Iran's new supreme leader said in his first message
Message from Iran's New Leader Acknowledges Dissent -- WSJ
Excerpt from the first message of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution to the Iranian nation @iribnews
Full text of the first message of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran
Iran's new supreme leader vows revenge on U.S., Israel
Iran's new supreme leader vows revenge on U.S., Israel
1st purported message from new supreme leader read on state TV
Iran’s new impotent supreme leader releases first statement — after reports emerge he is in coma, had leg amputated
Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei gives first public remarks
Iran's new supreme leader makes first statement
New Iran supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei releases first statement since appointment
Intelligence reports: The leadership in Iran remains cohesive | For details
Iran's new supreme leader is set to break his silence
Awaited message from Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei
Reuters: The first message from Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will be released shortly.
Iran's new supreme leader injured in strikes which killed his father
NONews99%match95¢+5%
Iran's new supreme leader injured in strikes which killed his father
YESNews99%match6¢-100%
Iran: Funeral procession begins for martyred leaders in Tehran
NOIran Semi-Official Tasnim98%match94¢+6%
The enduring covenant of the people of Isfahan with the Leader of the Revolution on the Night of Power. @TasnimNews
NOosint61398%match94¢+6%
Israel’s intelligence believes Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured during the war and has stayed out of public view because of those wounds, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
NONews98%match94¢+6%
Iran's new supreme leader believed to be 'lightly wounded' in attacks - report
NOajenews98%match93¢+8%
BREAKING: Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is 'safe and sound' despite reports of an injury during the war with Israel and the US, according to the son of the Iranian president on Wednesday.
NONews98%match93¢+8%
Speculation grows over health of Iran’s new supreme leader
NOSky News Arabia98%match93¢+8%
Reuters, citing Iranian sources: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard imposed the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader.
NORussian Media98%match93¢+8%
Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded on the first day of attacks by Israel and the United States on February 28, The New York Times reports. According to the newspaper's sources, Khamenei suffered leg injuries but was able to take refuge in a secure location. The full circumstances of the incident and the extent of Khamenei's injuries have not been disclosed. Iran's Council of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as Iran's new Supreme Leader on March 8. Previously largely out of the spotlight, he was considered a key figure in the country's politics. Read Mojtaba Khamenei's biography here. More IZ RU news in MAX
NONews99%match93¢+8%
Medvedev, in a message to Mr. Khamenei: Please accept my warmest congratulations on your election as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
NONews98%match93¢+8%
TASS: Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev describes the attack on Iran as a treacherous and unjustified armed aggression. Medvedev, in a message to Mr. Khamenei: Please accept my warmest congratulations on your election as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
NOajenews98%match93¢+8%
UPDATE: N Korea ‘respects’ Iran’s selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader • • LIVE updates:
YEShey_itsmyturn98%match8¢-100%
Schrodinger's Supreme Leader!
NONews98%match92¢+9%
North Korea says it supports election of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei
NOFrench Media98%match92¢+9%
Quel est le rôle de Mojtaba Khamenei, nouveau guide suprême iranien?
YESOsint98%match8¢-100%
Grand Mufti of Oman: • • "We were greatly pleased by Iran's hastening to fill the vacuum left by its late Leader; thus, our sincerest congratulations to them. And as we beseech God for the new Leader to achieve success and divine guidance: we hope that he will follow in the footsteps of his predecessor in championing the Palestinian cause and confronting the fading Zionism, by the will of God; and God shall take the Muslims under His protection and grace."
YESNews99%match8¢-100%
N. Korea says it respects Iran's choice of new supreme leader: KCNA
YESNews99%match8¢-100%
Iran’s new leader, still silent, was elevated by the Revolutionary Guards
YESpresstv98%match7¢-100%
Massive crowds gathered in the streets across Iran to support the military and pledge allegiance to the new Leader. • • Follow
NOjerusalem_post98%match93¢+8%
Mojtaba Khamenei remains in power despite injury, but his absence from public view raises questions about who is really leading Iran. • @Amichaistein1 •
NONews98%match93¢+8%
Iran's new supreme leader has not yet appeared publicly. Here's why
NOpresstv98%match92¢+9%
From the front lines at 17 to leading a nation. Meet Iran's new Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. • • Follow
NOosint61399%match92¢+9%
Footage of the first appearance of the supreme leader in Iran
NOIranian Media98%match93¢+8%
Medvedev: Attacking Iran is a cowardly act The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council in a message to the new leader of the revolution: Please accept my sincere congratulations on your election as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I am confident that your work in this capacity will help further strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran. The US and Zionist attack on Iran was a "cowardly and shameful act." isna.ir/xdW5ws @isna94
NOosint61398%match93¢+8%
Supreme leader has made an appearance
Where does the news lean?
18YES50NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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