Iran leadership changeJune 30, 2027

OpenVol$254KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 25% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES25¢
NO75¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOalarabiya91%match75¢
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei makes his first move since taking office, appointing figures from the "old guard" to key security positions in a move seen as paving the way for a longer confrontation with the United States.
NOalarabiya91%match75¢
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei makes his first move since taking office, appointing figures from the "old guard" to key security positions in a move seen as paving the way for a longer confrontation with the United States.
YEStelegraph.co.uk99%match28¢-11%
Live: Where is the new supreme leader?
NOspiegel.de99%match74¢+1%
Iran: New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei announces revenge
NOReuters99%match74¢+1%
Iran’s Supreme Leader: We Pledge to Avenge ‘Blood of the Martyred Leader and All the Martyrs of These Two Wars From the Criminal and Disgraced Perpetrators’
YEScnn.com99%match26¢-4%
Live: An absent supreme leader puts Iran in unchartered territory
YESIran State News Agency99%match26¢-4%
Italian researcher: The legacy of Iran's martyred leader goes beyond the country's internal borders Giulio Chinappi, a researcher at the Italian Center for Eurasian and Mediterranean Studies (CeSEM), wrote in an exclusive note for IRNA: At a moment when the Iranian nation is in mourning, the legacy of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must be considered beyond the borders of Iran's internal politics. His leadership embodied the defense of national sovereignty, resistance to imperialist pressures, and the belief that independence remains the foundation of any just international order. His response was based on strategic patience, domestic resilience, and resistance. During his leadership, Iran faced waves of sanctions, repeated military threats, assassinations of scientists and commanders, sabotage operations, media warfare, and attempts to isolate the country from the international system. However, Iran did not collapse, did not become a dependent state, and did not surrender its sovereignty. #Must_Stand Up #The_Martyr_of_Iran's_Mr._Raqqa @IRNA_1313
NOIran State TV99%match74¢+1%
Iran vows response to any aggression, hails self-reliant defense as legacy of martyred Leader • •
YESIraq State News Agency (INA)98%match26¢-4%
Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi has directed that official working hours be suspended tomorrow, Wednesday, coinciding with the funeral procession for the religious authority, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Husseini al-Khamenei
YESAl Mayadeen98%match26¢-4%
Iran: Analysts told Al-Mayadeen: The martyred leader Khamenei focused on moral values, and his life story speaks of his asceticism, simplicity, and closeness to everyone.
YESalmayadeenlive98%match26¢-4%
Iran: Analysts told Al-Mayadeen: The martyred leader Khamenei focused on moral values, and his life story speaks of his asceticism, simplicity, and closeness to everyone.
NOIran State News Agency98%match74¢+1%
Ejei thanks the Leader of the Revolution for extending his presidency of the judiciary In response to the ruling to extend his term as head of the judiciary by the blessed order of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the head of the judiciary emphasized in a letter to His Majesty: I will use all my strength and effort to complete the assigned missions in the best possible way. @IRNA_1313
YESalmayadeennews99%match26¢-4%
For over six decades in the history of the Islamic Revolution... a history filled with struggle and sacrifice, forged by the martyr, the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Report by: Alaa Bilal @alaabilal8
YESIran Government99%match26¢-4%
May God bless the great nation of Iran. After three days of farewell and a magnificent funeral, today the body of our martyred leader left us and Tehran forever; but this is not the end of the road, but rather the beginning of a new chapter for us. From today, we will strive more than ever to realize his intentions and the lofty ideals of the Islamic Revolution and the late Imam, and for the pride of our beloved Iran, and live with his memories.
YESIranian Media99%match26¢-4%
A final farewell to the leader who was the soul of Iran @iribnews
NOtheguardian.com99%match74¢+1%
Live: Today’s procession marks a contrast with the funeral for Iran’s previous supreme leader in 1989, which devolved into chaos. According to official estimates at t
YESalmayadeenlive99%match26¢-4%
Iran: CNN reports that Tehran's streets are packed to capacity with participants in the Supreme Leader's funeral procession.
YESHouthi-Linked TV99%match26¢-4%
Our correspondent in Iran: The Iranian people today reaffirm their commitment to the principles and achievements of the revolution and their determination to avenge the assassination of the martyr, Mr. Khamenei.
YEScbsnews.com99%match26¢-4%
Live: Iran will "never cease" in its pursuit of justice for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, says army chief
YESnewsdig.tbs.co.jp99%match26¢-4%
[On-the-ground coverage of Iran - latest information] Intense fervor and amplified "hostility"... Even children say "Revenge is necessary" - Third day of funeral for former Supreme Leader Khamenei, who died in an attack by the United States and Israel.

Where does the news lean?

24YES18NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related markets

See all outcomes for Iran leadership change — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.

Trending now