Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?↓ 6.50%
Open$11Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 17% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES17¢
NO84¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US 30-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages 08-Oct Wk: 7.40% (prev 7.28%) • - 15-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages: 6.73% (prev 6.60%) • •
U.S. MORTGAGE RATES HIT 7.4% AS HOME SELLERS CUT PRICES • • The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.4%, its highest since November 2023, further weakening housing demand. • • With buyers retreating, 21% of sellers reduced asking prices, a record share for this time of year in Redfin's data. • • Home prices are falling in several major markets, including Dallas (-5%), Austin (-3.4%) and Tampa (-1.9%) year-over-year. • • Sellers are increasingly offering closing-cost credits and mortgage-rate buydowns, shifting negotiating power toward buyers despite elevated borrowing costs.
NOReuters95%match82¢+1%
U.S. 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage Averages 7.40 PCT in Oct 8 Week, Highest Since Nov 16, 2023 Week, vs 7.28 PCT Prior Week-Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.95% in Biggest Weekly Jump Since April 2025. Don't Expect a Big Reversal Soon. -- Barrons.com
Where does the news lean?
0YES18NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
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