Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Stephen Miller
Open$48Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Trump sends ‘clear message’ to Democrats with Miller promotion President Trump sent a blunt message to the incoming Democratic majority on Capitol Hill by tapping Stephen Miller to be his new chief of staff, setting up what is likely to be a contentious two years between both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. Miller is loathed by most Democrats, many of whom view him as xenophobic…
President Trump moved Friday to install longtime aide Stephen Miller as his White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles in the most significant shakeup of his team since Republicans' losses in the midterm elections.
Live: Stephen Miller says he is 'honored beyond words' to step into new role as Trump's chief of staff
Live: What to Know About Stephen Miller, Trump’s New Chief of Staff
What to Know About Stephen Miller, Trump’s New Chief of Staff
[UPDATE] Stephen Miller replaces Susie Wiles as Trump's White House chief of staff after GOP's midterm defeat (first reported at 2026-11-06T18:58:20Z)
We gathered near the helipad to watch Trump depart for Florida after he announced the appointment of Stephen Miller, the architect of his hardline immigration policy, as his chief of staff, replacing Wiles. She reportedly resigned (media).
I’m told the decision came from Trump, who placed some of the blame on her for the party’s poor midterm showing. She submitted her resignation on Thursday, a WH official said. • • Promoting Stephen Miller sends a signal to Democrats — and Trump’s base — on how the administration plans to handle the next two years. More @semafor: • •
[UPDATE] The Latest: Trump replaces Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff (first reported at 2026-11-06T13:24:06Z)
[UPDATE] Trump replaces chief of staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller (first reported at 2026-11-06T19:02:11Z)
[UPDATE] Trump installs Stephen Miller as chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles (first reported at 2026-11-06T19:00:51.971766900Z)
Trump has been blaming Susie Wiles in part for GOP losses in the midterms, and Wiles submitted her resignation last night, per person familiar • • With Stephen Miller as chief, White House is set to take much more confrontational posture with Dems in Congress for the next two years
Live Updates: Trump Names Stephen Miller His Chief of Staff, Replacing Susie Wiles
President Donald Trump on Friday announced White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller will be promoted to chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. Trump revealed the stunning shake-up just three days after Democrats’ landslide victory in the midterm elections.
"I am pleased to announce that Mr. Stephen Miller, the current Deputy Chief of Staff of the Trump Administration, and one of my most trusted advisors, will become the Chief of Staff starting Monday, November 9, 2026. Susie Wiles, who has done an outstanding job, will be moving over to the Trump Political Operation. I want to thank her for her service as Chief of Staff — She has done a great job!" - President Donald J. Trump
Live: Trump names Stephen Miller chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles
WASHINGTON (AP) — Trump replaces Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff after GOP's midterm defeat.
I am pleased to announce that Mr. Stephen Miller, the current Deputy Chief of Staff of the Trump Administration, and one of my most trusted advisors, will become the Chief of Staff starting Monday, November 9, 2026. Susie Wiles, who has done an outstanding job, will be moving over to the Trump Political Operation. I want to thank her for her service as Chief of Staff — She has done a great job! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Live: Stephen Miller calls birthright citizenship ruling ‘one of the most destructive’ in SCOTUS history
Live: Ruling 'one of the most destructive' in court's history, Stephen Miller says
NOAcyn99%match59¢+63%
Graham: To my colleagues who believe that you can convince Donald Trump that Stephen Miller is a liability for him, good luck with that. When this clock strikes 12 on the trump era, there will be a few people walking out the door with Donald Trump, Stephen Miller will be in that…
Where does the news lean?
1YES28NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 95% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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