Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Gavin Newsom the favorite at 13% across 72 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
All further outcomes (42 more):
Elise Stefanik · Matt Gaetz · Mike Pence · Tom Brady · Marjorie Taylor Greene · Pete Buttigieg · Kamala Harris · Mark Cuban · Tim Walz · Gina Raimondo · Jared Polis · Liz Cheney · Hunter Biden · Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson · Kim Kardashian · Tulsi Gabbard · Nikki Haley · Brian Kemp · Ted Cruz · John Thune · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · Steve Bannon · Josh Shapiro · Gretchen Whitmer · J.B. Pritzker · Michelle Obama · Zohran Mamdani · Jon Stewart · Bernie Sanders · George Clooney · Oprah Winfrey · Donald Trump · Glenn Youngkin · Vivek Ramaswamy · Byron Donalds · Elon Musk · Kristi Noem · Ivanka Trump · Erika Kirk · Candace Owens · Don Lemon · Candace Owens
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Tucker Carlson has said privately he has no interest in running for president, but those close to him say he could change his mind if JD Vance doesn’t run and Trump were to endorse someone like Rubio:
MTG tells Playbook Tucker Carlson won't run for president:
Tucker Carlson went on a livestream tonight to reveal his plan for what "America should be." • • Last night Carlson posted a photo of himself at table along with MTG and Massie among others and said: "MAGA was betrayed. We all were. It's time for a new path forward. More tomorrow night at 6 PM ET on • • There are reports of a new coalition of high-profile MAGA figures launching a movement with the aim of running a third party-candidate in the 2028 presidential election.
Live: Tucker Carlson , the rightwing broadcaster, wants to help build a new political party in the United States, he said in an interview – though he gave scant detai
U.S. Conservative Commentator Tucker Carlson, Who Broke Up with Trump, Says He Will Help Found a Third Party
Tucker Carlson, Who Broke With Trump, Plans to ‘Help Build a Third Party’
Tucker Carlson, Who Broke With Trump, Plans to ‘Help Build a Third Party’
With a "third party"... Tucker Carlson shakes up the American party system #SkyOnline 9%88%D9%86-%D9%8A%D9%87%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A
Why did the prominent conservative presenter cross the Republican Party? Tucker Carlson, a prominent American conservative analyst, announced his withdrawal from the Republican Party and plans to form a "third party." This move, which came amid his differences with Donald Trump, reflects the deep divisions within the American right. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_IR
US Vice President JD Vance responds to a question about running for president in 2028: There are many more topics I'd rather talk about than what position I might run for years from now. Right now, I enjoy what I do and strive to do my best in the job the American people elected me to do. The event
US Vice President JD Vance responds to a question about running for president in 2028: There are many more things I'd rather talk about than what office I might run for in a few years... Right now, I'm enjoying what I'm doing and striving to do my best in the job the American people elected me to do.
US Vice President JD Vance brushes aside questions about his plans for the 2028 election and the possibility of running on a joint presidential ticket with Secretary of State Marco Rubio after US President Trump teased the idea of the two cabinet officials running together.
Kamala Harris overtakes Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 Democratic primary race.
Ocasio-Cortez and Rubio top 2028 presidential candidate polls Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) and current Secretary of State Marco Rubio came out on top in a new National Atlas poll of American voters' preferred candidates for the 2028 presidential election. Mean on social networks @mizanplus
Bets on/against long-shot candidates make up a majority of trading volume in Polymarket’s 2028 presidential election market. • • 8.8% of the market’s volume comes from trades tied to a LeBron James presidency.
Tucker Carlson ‘sorry for misleading people’ with Trump support
Assaf Rosenzweig A New York Times report: US Vice President J.D. Vance has raised more than $60 million ahead of the midterm elections in his role as the Republican Party's finance chairman. At the same time, he and his team are working to cultivate relationships with many donors in preparation for the 2028 presidential campaign. According to the report, Vance and his team are careful not to appear to be planning the 2028 elections or dealing with President Donald Trump's successor.
Sharpton nudges Moore with a question about what'll happen in 2028; some chants of "run Wes run." • • Moore: "I got 278 days left in my first term as governor. By the way, I'm going back to the people in Maryland, because I'm going to run this thing back." • • He pauses for a moment; applause. • • "Anyone and any of these people who are thinking about 2028; I need to see that you're taking 2026 seriously." • • A pretty popular diversion for non-candidates. But not the "I'm not running" we've heard elsewhere from Moore.
What Tucker Carlson’s big break with Trump means
Tucker Carlson: Officials should say 'no' to Trump's orders Tucker Carlson, a well-known American media host and activist, said that officials should say "no" to Trump's orders, considering US President Donald Trump's threats against Iran. Influential right-wing podcaster Tucker Carlson, a long-time critic of US military operations abroad, has urged US officials to resist any potential attempts by Donald Trump to carry out widespread attacks that would result in civilian casualties among Iranians. Referring to the bag containing the launch codes, he said: "The authorities should tell the president to find the codes on the football himself (referring to the US president's nuclear suitcase). News link Follow IRNA news on Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus | ETA | Jahan @IRNA_1313
TUCKER CARLSON SAYS OFFICIALS SHOULD SAY NO TO TRUMP ORDERS: WSJ ...
TUCKER CARLSON SAYS OFFICIALS SHOULD SAY NO TO TRUMP ORDERS: WSJ
Tucker Carlson Says Officials Should Say No to Trump Orders -- WSJ
Just in: The top super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans plans to spend an initial $44 million to defeat U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, unleashing one of the most powerful and well-financed forces in American politics against the Democratic incumbent. #gapol •
BREAKING: President Trump appoints JD Vance as the “Fraud Czar.”
President Donald Trump announced that Vice President JD Vance will investigate fraud in Democratic-run states. • • More Here →
WaPo: Vance has not decided on a 2028 run, citing a fourth child due this summer and a focus on family before making any call to run.
Gavin Newsom drops biggest hint yet he’s going to run for president
Tucker Carlson says Trump’s Justice Department is coming for him — Independent
Gavin Newsom is pollsters favourite to run in 2028
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.