US-Iran Hormuz AgreementSeptember 15
ResolvedOutcome: No$280Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Tanker War between the US and Iran September 5: US forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and the Gulf of Oman in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on two US warships.
September 8: Washington destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. The total was eight tankers in three days.
September 9: Iran announced it had targeted ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including two US warships and eight tankers.
- US Central Command denied that its warships were hit and said the Iranian attacks failed.
- Here is a file on the Tanker War between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s
Hormuz, Strait of Authority The images in this report are from the early hours of Wednesday, September 18, 1405, and the normal situation in the Strait of Hormuz after the exchange of fire between Iran and the United States last night in this area. See the #visual_report here. @isnamediaa
@isna94
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, September 16, 1405, answer to the twelfth question: Our position is clear. Regarding the issues related to regional security and the Strait of Hormuz, the insecurity that the United States has imposed on the region, it must resolve this insecurity itself; in what way? By stopping all aggressive, interventionist actions, economic sanctions, and maritime blockade. Our position was clear from the beginning, from the moment we entered the diplomatic process. When we reached an understanding on June 18, we very clearly and transparently included what we intended in that memorandum of understanding. The problem is on the American side, which violated all its commitments only 22, 23 days after signing the understanding. Therefore, if we want to use the same conventional diplomatic term, the ball has long been in the American court; Because they themselves initiated the military aggression and then they themselves initiated the violation of the understanding that they themselves had signed. @MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, September 16, 1405, Question 12: Some sources have reported that the United States is seeking a new agreement with Iran that addresses more clearly the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program. I would like to know His Holiness's opinion on this. @MFAIran]
The Financial Times reported on Friday, September 4, that the differences between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have become increasingly focused on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, as the Trump administration has rejected a return to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, while Tehran wants to revive the agreement as a basis for reducing tensions and resuming oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, diplomatic efforts to return the parties to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which included a halt to military actions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the start of more comprehensive negotiations, have been met with opposition from Washington. The US is now demanding a new and more comprehensive agreement that, in addition to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, also includes Iran's nuclear file. In contrast, Masoud Pezzekian has emphasized that his country is ready to fulfill its obligations as soon as the US returns to its commitments in the interim agreement. However, Washington is counting on the leverage of field pressure and, by strengthening its military presence, mine clearance, and creating safe routes, is trying to prove that Iran can no longer use the Strait of Hormuz as a card to pressure the energy market.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Last night's conflict not only targeted Iranian skies and US bases; this morning, it has already impacted the US market. Oil prices have broken through $95, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.81%; a "Black September" may have only just begun. Trump is waiting for protests to erupt within Iran; but by November, perhaps it will be Americans protesting against Trump himself.
U.S.–IRAN ESCALATION • • The U.S. is reportedly striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, while explosions have been reported on Iran’s Qeshm Island. • • As tensions rise, Kalshi puts the odds of a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal before 2029 at just 27%. •
Top Overnight News • • Iran and the United States traded attacks for the first time in over a month overnight into Monday. Iran fired missiles toward US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for a strike on Iranian rocket launchers that the US said were trying to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The exchange of strikes came just days after President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz free from mines and is a break with Washington’s recent shift in focus to maximizing economic pressure on Iran rather than military actions. CNN • • Iranian leaders are acknowledging the economic toll of war with the U.S., with the supreme leader urging the government to address the hardship and the president saying foreign trade has shrunk by a third due to the American sanctions and blockade. Yet Tehran signaled no retreat on Saturday, vowing to withstand U.S. pressure, pursue diplomacy and maintain what it said was control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters • • President Donal Trump said Friday night the United States has reached an oil agreement with Venezuela, a move he said will “more than double” American oil reserves, increase oil supply and lower gas prices. The deal is said to “secure majority control” of more than 65B barrels worth of oil reserves in Venezuela, or ~20% of the country’s total. CNN / FT • • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he will encourage G20 members to re-examine terms of trade with China to shrink global imbalances and press Beijing to rebalance its economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption. Bessent said in an interview ahead of a G20 finance leaders meeting that the current flood of exports from China was unsustainable, even though the U.S. direct trade position with China was "rapidly improving." Reuters • • China’s official manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August, suggesting that momentum has yet to rebound after July’s sharp downturn. BBG • • SK Hynix is exploring a joint venture to make memory chips in Japan to meet surging AI demand, Chairman Chey Tae-won said. BBG • • South Korea’s industrial production for Jul came in ahead of expectations at +0.2% M/M (vs. the Street -0.5%). BBG • • Russia’s Defense Ministry said it is planning “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, days after launching a devastating attack on a warehouse near Kyiv, amplifying fears of another winter assault. CNBC • • September is historically the worst month for Wall St, and traders are preparing for volatility during the coming weeks, with the FOMC meeting on 9/16 potentially a major catalyst. Barron’s
Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for the US Central Command, said US forces were closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz and were “prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this vital waterway.” Hawkins also confirmed that US forces had targeted two IRGC launchers on Lark Island on September 28. “IRGC forces were observed preparing naval mine-laden missiles to be fired into the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. The strike was the first US strike on Iran in about a month. US President Donald Trump announced last week that the US Navy had cleared mines from the main shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz and warned Iran against any new mine-laying attempts.
23:46 / September 2
While Donald Trump is practically begging behind the scenes to resume negotiations with Iran, Iran's conditions for negotiations have become stricter. Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until all frozen assets are released and the war on all fronts, including Lebanon and even the West Bank, is stopped. And Iran does not accept any kind of negotiations on the nuclear issue. From Iran's point of view, all 5 conditions stated in Article 13 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding must be fully implemented, and then Iran will begin opening the Strait of Hormuz solely with its own arrangements.
Where does the news lean?
4YES18NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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