OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

OpenOutcomes7as of

Market pricing makes No IPO by December 31, 2026 the favorite at 84% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

No IPO by December 31, 202684%
1.5T+6%
750B–1T5%
1T–1.25T4%
1.25T–1.5T2%
500–750B1%
<500B0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

No IPO by December 31, 2026etnews.com94%match81¢+4%
OpenAI CFO: “Pushing for IPO next year… No problem even if later than Antropics”
No IPO by December 31, 2026semafor.com93%match78¢+8%
OpenAI sales growth slows, unnerving investors ahead of planned IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026faz.net97%match84¢
(No) IPO: Why OpenAI has to postpone its IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026News99%match36¢-56%
OPENAI IPO AS EARLY AS Q4 - SOURCE
No IPO by December 31, 2026faststocknewss99%match36¢-56%
OpenAI on track to IPO as early as Q4 2026, per CNBC. CEO and CFO reportedly "confident" about going public after their $122B fundraise.
750B–1Tfaststocknewss98%match4¢+25%
OpenAI on track to IPO as early as Q4 2026, per CNBC. CEO and CFO reportedly "confident" about going public after their $122B fundraise.
500–750Bfaststocknewss98%match98¢+1%
OpenAI on track to IPO as early as Q4 2026, per CNBC. CEO and CFO reportedly "confident" about going public after their $122B fundraise.
No IPO by December 31, 2026stockmktnewz98%match36¢-56%
OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO IPO AS EARLY AS Q4 - CNBC
No IPO by December 31, 2026marketnews_feed98%match36¢-56%
OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO IPO AS EARLY AS Q4 - CNBC ...
No IPO by December 31, 2026marketnews_feed98%match36¢-56%
OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO IPO AS EARLY AS Q4 - CNBC ...
No IPO by December 31, 2026firstsquawk98%match36¢-56%
OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO IPO AS EARLY AS Q4 - CNBC
No IPO by December 31, 2026Walter Bloomberg98%match36¢-56%
OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO IPO AS EARLY AS Q4 - CNBC
No IPO by December 31, 2026Reuters98%match36¢-56%
OpenAI is on Track to IPO as Early as Q4 - CNBC
No IPO by December 31, 2026dbws.io98%match67¢+25%
OpenAI CFO raises concerns over Sam Altman’s 2026 IPO plans, The Information reports
No IPO by December 31, 2026handelsblatt.com99%match38¢-58%
OpenAI aligns its strategy with a potential IPO in 2026
750B–1Tunusual_whales98%match11¢-55%
AI spending is accelerating far faster than revenue, with hyperscalers projected to pour more than $2 trillion into the space, intensifying the concentration of capital around AI, per Morgan Stanley.
1.25T–1.5Tunusual_whales98%match96¢+2%
AI spending is accelerating far faster than revenue, with hyperscalers projected to pour more than $2 trillion into the space, intensifying the concentration of capital around AI, per Morgan Stanley.
500–750Bunusual_whales98%match91¢+9%
AI spending is accelerating far faster than revenue, with hyperscalers projected to pour more than $2 trillion into the space, intensifying the concentration of capital around AI, per Morgan Stanley.
750B–1TCNBC98%match89¢+7%
OpenAI has closed a $110 billion funding round, a financing that’s more than double the size of its last raise a year ago, which was a record for a private tech company. Full details:
750B–1TPolymarket99%match89¢+7%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 58% chance the OpenAI IPO closes above $1 trillion. >
1T–1.25TPolymarket99%match5¢-20%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 58% chance the OpenAI IPO closes above $1 trillion. >
1.25T–1.5TPolymarket99%match4¢-50%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 58% chance the OpenAI IPO closes above $1 trillion. >
500–750BPolymarket99%match91¢+9%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 58% chance the OpenAI IPO closes above $1 trillion. >
<500BPolymarket98%match93¢+8%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 58% chance the OpenAI IPO closes above $1 trillion. >
750B–1TFirst Squawk98%match11¢-55%
OPENAI TO RAISE $110B IN NEW INVESTMENT AT $730B VALUATION
500–750BFirst Squawk98%match9¢-89%
OPENAI TO RAISE $110B IN NEW INVESTMENT AT $730B VALUATION
<500BFirst Squawk98%match93¢+8%
OPENAI TO RAISE $110B IN NEW INVESTMENT AT $730B VALUATION
750B–1Tzerohedge98%match11¢-55%
*OPENAI TO RAISE $110B IN NEW INVESTMENT AT $730B VALUATION
500–750Bzerohedge98%match91¢+9%
*OPENAI TO RAISE $110B IN NEW INVESTMENT AT $730B VALUATION
<500Bzerohedge98%match93¢+8%
*OPENAI TO RAISE $110B IN NEW INVESTMENT AT $730B VALUATION

What is this event about?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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