OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap1.25T–1.5T
Open$525Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOunusual_whales98%match96¢+2%
AI spending is accelerating far faster than revenue, with hyperscalers projected to pour more than $2 trillion into the space, intensifying the concentration of capital around AI, per Morgan Stanley.
YESPolymarket99%match4¢-50%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 58% chance the OpenAI IPO closes above $1 trillion. >
NOBloomberg98%match96¢+2%
Investors are struggling to predict the impact that AI will have on the wider economy.
NOLeading Report98%match94¢+4%
BREAKING: OpenAI could lose about $14 billion in 2026, according to projections.
NOSolid Intel 📡98%match94¢+4%
INTEL: OpenAI is projected to post a $14 billion net loss in 2026 and does not expect annual profitability until 2029, as it seeks funding at an $830 billion valuation
NOunusual_whales98%match94¢+4%
OpenAI predicts a $14 billion loss in 2026, per PCGamer.
NOFirst Squawk99%match93¢+5%
The upcoming OpenAI funding round is projected at about $100 billion, valuing the company around $830 billion, according to a source.
NOStocktwits98%match90¢+9%
OpenAI discussing raising tens of billions at ~$750 billion valuation, according to The Information. Sam trying to catch up to @elonmusk and SpaceX…
NOBloomberg99%match90¢+9%
OpenAI has held funding talks with investors to raise tens of billions of dollars at a valuation of $750 billion, according to a report in the Information
NOFirst Squawk98%match90¢+9%
OpenAI Explores Massive Capital Raise at Approximate $750 Billion Valuation-THE INFORMATION
NOtradfi news98%match90¢+9%
*OPENAI DISCUSSING RAISING UP TO $100B AT $750B VALUATION: THE INFORMATION *NEW VALUATION 50% HIGHER THAN LAST OCTOBER'S SHARE SALE: THE INFORMATION
Where does the news lean?
1YES11NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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