Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
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Market pricing makes Ronaldo Caiado the favorite at 44% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Renan Santos27%
Augusto Cury26%
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Brazil’s TV and radio campaign blitz begins, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro set for a nasty fight
Brazil: Federal Police are investigating fraud in the membership of Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and candidate for the Liberal Party (PL). The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) clarified that it was not a cyberattack, but rather "misuse" of party credentials. This new investigation adds to the ongoing "rachadinhas" scandal and the "Dark Horse" campaign financing investigation. #Brazil #FlávioBolsonaro #TSE #teleSUR #Aug20
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launched his reelection campaign in São Bernardo do Campo. In a massive rally, the president reaffirmed his commitment to the working class and presented the key points of his platform: a frontal assault on organized crime networks and the eradication of gender-based violence. He called for unity among grassroots organizations and defended the institutional transformations achieved during his terms in office. #Brazil #Lula #LatinAmerica #BrazilElections #teleSUR #Aug17
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
Brazil’s Lula launches historic fourth term bid – but son of jailed Bolsonaro stands in his way
Poll shows Lula leading in Brazil Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Quaest poll of 13 presidential candidates with 38 percent of the vote.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva leads with 39% of the vote intention in the first round and wins in all runoff scenarios, according to a Genial/Quaest poll. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 30%. 69% of the electorate says their vote is final. Undecided: 10%. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #LatinAmerica #teleSUR
Lula leads Quaest poll: 39% in the first round vs. 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. He wins all runoff scenarios. #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #teleSUR #Aug5
Republicans, Progressives, União Brasil, and Podemos deny support for Flávio Bolsonaro. The Brazilian right opts for neutrality and isolates Bolsonarism. Without TV airtime, Bolsonaro's son's campaign is suffocating. #teleSUR #Brazil #Bolsonaro #Aug4
Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election
Lula pledges to defend Brazil's sovereignty by announcing his candidacy for re-election Brazil's president has announced his candidacy for the country's presidential election in October, presenting himself as an experienced leader capable of guiding the country in times of global instability. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Brazil's Workers' Party officially nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for the October elections, in which he will seek a fourth term in the Planalto Palace alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Lula arrived accompanied by the First Lady and was greeted by a large crowd of supporters. The president leads in the polls with a platform focused on economic growth and reducing inequality. #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #Elections #teleSUR
Brazil’s Pp Party Says It Will Remain Neutral in Presidential Election, Senator Tereza Cristina Accepted Decision - Statement
Brazilian right-wing party nominates Bolsonaro's eldest son for the next presidential election; he has good relations with Trump.
Brazilian Presidential Election: Bolsonaro's eldest son officially announces candidacy; Trump also offers support
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
ALERT: Flavio Bolsonaro formally nominated for Brazil's presidential race
Crisis-hit Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential candidacy in Brazil
Lula leads with 48% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 43% in the race for the October presidential elections, according to Datafolha. The margin has barely changed since June. The far-right candidate will be officially launched this Saturday in São Paulo with Javier Milei as a guest. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, the far-right candidate, has been implicated in the Banco Master scandal. His law firm issued three invoices for R$500,000 each to companies linked to banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently detained on corruption charges. #teleSUR #Brazil #FlavioBolsonaro #BancoMaster #July23
Information consumption habits in Brazil vary drastically according to political preferences, according to a Genial/Quaest poll. This study reveals a marked communication gap between traditional media and online platforms in the lead-up to the upcoming presidential elections. The report confirms that television consolidates support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who reaches 51% of the voting intention in this sector.
Lula widens his electoral lead in all runoff scenarios The Brazilian president has 45% of the vote intention compared to 37% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Genial/Quaest poll, which confirms the strengthening of the ruling party's base ahead of the October elections. Can the opposition reverse this trend before the elections?
Lula Seen with 40%, Flavio Bolsonaro 28%, Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3%, Zema 2% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
#Lula leads all election simulations for 2026: 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 34% in the first round, according to BTG Pactual. In a spontaneous poll, the difference widens to 11 points. In the second round: 47% to 44%. #Brazil #teleSUR
"The most suitable option for preserving his health": Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro remains under house arrest
Poll places Lula da Silva as the favorite for Brazil's 2026 presidential elections A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll reveals that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 46.6% of voting intentions for the 2026 elections, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 39.7%. In an alternative scenario without Lula's participation, former minister Fernando Haddad (PT) leads the voting intention with 40.5%, compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 39.2%. The study, which interviewed 5,008 Brazilians between April 22 and 27, has a 95% confidence level.
A simulated run-off poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro tied ahead of Brazil's presidential election. • • More Here →
Poll reveals high polarization in Brazil's presidential elections. Lula leads the voting intention for the first round with 37%. Flavio Bolsonaro is in second place with 32%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (6%) and Zema (3%). The Quaest poll (April 9-13) indicates that right-wing and far-right candidates together account for 41%.
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).