Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Open$34Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
Poll shows Lula leading in Brazil Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Quaest poll of 13 presidential candidates with 38 percent of the vote.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva leads with 39% of the vote intention in the first round and wins in all runoff scenarios, according to a Genial/Quaest poll. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 30%. 69% of the electorate says their vote is final. Undecided: 10%. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #LatinAmerica #teleSUR
Brazil's Workers' Party officially nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for the October elections, in which he will seek a fourth term in the Planalto Palace alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Lula arrived accompanied by the First Lady and was greeted by a large crowd of supporters. The president leads in the polls with a platform focused on economic growth and reducing inequality. #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #Elections #teleSUR
Poll places Lula da Silva as the favorite for Brazil's 2026 presidential elections A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll reveals that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 46.6% of voting intentions for the 2026 elections, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 39.7%. In an alternative scenario without Lula's participation, former minister Fernando Haddad (PT) leads the voting intention with 40.5%, compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 39.2%. The study, which interviewed 5,008 Brazilians between April 22 and 27, has a 95% confidence level.
A simulated run-off poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro tied ahead of Brazil's presidential election. • • More Here →
Lula confirms Geraldo Alckmin as his presidential running mate for the October elections Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that current Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, will leave his cabinet post to join him again on the presidential ticket. The elections are scheduled for October 4. During a cabinet meeting in Brasilia, Lula declared that "comrade Alckmin will have to leave the ministry because he will be a candidate for the vice presidency of the Republic again."
Where does the news lean?
0YES13NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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