Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceFlávio Bolsonaro
Open$44Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Lula leads Quaest poll: 39% in the first round vs. 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. He wins all runoff scenarios. #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #teleSUR #Aug5
Republicans, Progressives, União Brasil, and Podemos deny support for Flávio Bolsonaro. The Brazilian right opts for neutrality and isolates Bolsonarism. Without TV airtime, Bolsonaro's son's campaign is suffocating. #teleSUR #Brazil #Bolsonaro #Aug4
Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election
Brazilian right-wing party nominates Bolsonaro's eldest son for the next presidential election; he has good relations with Trump.
Brazilian Presidential Election: Bolsonaro's eldest son officially announces candidacy; Trump also offers support
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Lula leads with 48% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 43% in the race for the October presidential elections, according to Datafolha. The margin has barely changed since June. The far-right candidate will be officially launched this Saturday in São Paulo with Javier Milei as a guest. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula
Lula widens his electoral lead in all runoff scenarios The Brazilian president has 45% of the vote intention compared to 37% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Genial/Quaest poll, which confirms the strengthening of the ruling party's base ahead of the October elections. Can the opposition reverse this trend before the elections?
#Lula leads all election simulations for 2026: 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 34% in the first round, according to BTG Pactual. In a spontaneous poll, the difference widens to 11 points. In the second round: 47% to 44%. #Brazil #teleSUR
Poll reveals high polarization in Brazil's presidential elections. Lula leads the voting intention for the first round with 37%. Flavio Bolsonaro is in second place with 32%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (6%) and Zema (3%). The Quaest poll (April 9-13) indicates that right-wing and far-right candidates together account for 41%.
FLAVIO BOLSONARO SEEN WITH 42% OF VOTE VS LULA'S 40% IN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POTENTIAL RUN-OFF - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
NOReuters99%match97¢
Flavio Bolsonaro Seen with 42% of Vote vs Lula’s 40% in Brazil’s Presidential Election Potential Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
Where does the news lean?
6YES13NO18neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 75% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.