Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?United Russia (ER)
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The market prices a 73% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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NO28¢
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11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Why did United Russia hold the second stage of its congress? The party approved the program it is going into the elections with and listened to its leaders. President Vladimir Putin also spoke at the congress. During the first stage of the congress, the party nominated its candidates. The second stage of the congress is needed, among other things, to send a media signal about Putin’s presence and to interpret his speech as unequivocal support for this particular party, believes Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. “The United Russia campaign is conservative in that it repeats previous techniques,” he says. “In this regard, the theme of the ‘People’s Program’ allows us to create pretexts during the election campaign, and subsequently interpret a high result as, among other things, a consequence of the effectiveness of this program’s tactics.” Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS Application | Android [in reply to: The United Russia congress adopted the party's popular platform, which it will take to the State Duma elections. The second stage of the congress featured a speech by State Duma deputy Denis Maidanov. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS app | Android]
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Putin called the United Russia program an important and serious document that contains development guidelines for the coming years.
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United Russia will urgently hold the third stage of its congress, where it will sum up the election results and adopt a manifesto – Medvedev
The United Russia congress approved the party's popular program, which it will take to the State Duma elections, a Vedomosti correspondent reports. The performer, State Duma deputy Denis Maidanov, spoke at the closing of the congress. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Vladimir Putin spoke at the second stage of the United Russia pre-election congress He stated that "all these years he has been counting on United Russia" and would like to support the party and wish it success. "Even in the most difficult conditions, we will not retreat from the principles of democracy," the Russian president said. He noted that veterans of the North Military District are among the United Russia candidates. They have "a deep understanding of the problems faced by front-line soldiers and their families," the Russian president emphasized. The upcoming elections will confirm Russia's resilience and its ability to withstand any external threats, Putin added. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
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United Russia will hold its third congress, where it will sum up the election results and adopt a party manifesto with strategic goals for the next five years – Medvedev
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URGENT: United Russia has become the leading political force in Russia - Putin
The main points of Putin's speech at the United Russia congress: The upcoming elections in Russia will be an expression of the common will of millions of Russians, their desire to ensure the sovereignty and security of the country The fighters on the line of contact who are fighting for the Motherland must certainly be cherished The terrorist attacks of the Kyiv regime reveal its neo-Nazi essence Putin expressed confidence that Russia's soldiers will not let us down, the whole country is with them "United Russia" is consolidating society, making a significant contribution to the national agenda Despite all the difficulties, Russia is developing, launching large-scale projects There should be no secondary issues for the authorities, every life situation of Russians important The head of state stated that he supports United Russia and wished the party success in the State Duma elections Read in "Max"
56% of Russians have decided who they will vote for in the State Duma elections, according to VTsIOM data for July. Another 34% do not yet know or may change their mind, so they will decide later. 64% of respondents know about the upcoming State Duma elections. 54% of respondents say they will definitely vote, while 16% “will probably” vote. Another 16% will not participate in the elections, and 13% have not yet decided. The balance of power in the upcoming elections is stable, with United Russia remaining the leader, according to political scientist Nikita Setov. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation will take 2nd place, he believes. The fight for 3rd place will be between the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and New People. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
United Russia has come up with a concept for the work of the federal five-member list for the State Duma elections. The ruling party has selected personal political strategists for the five "main candidates" on the list, Vedomosti sources say. "The candidates from the five-member list are, after all, symbols of sorts. Their work is aimed at different strata of voters, and they will be presented to each in their own way. That is, [the political strategists' task, among other things, is] to create a media image during the election campaign," a source close to the Presidential Administration said. The list will be led in the elections by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny, Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, and the head of Yunarmiya, a participant in the special operation, Vladislav Golovin. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
United Russia's preliminary voting will take place in the Moscow region from May 25 to 31. Residents will choose the candidates who will represent the party in the fall elections to the State Duma, Moscow Regional Duma, and municipal councils. According to federal experts, the Moscow region has become one of the leaders in terms of competition: 13 people are vying for a seat in the regional parliament, while the average for legislative assemblies in Russia is seven people per seat. Igor Bryntsalov, secretary of the regional branch of the party and chairman of the Moscow Regional Duma, reported that a significant change in the composition of the regional parliament is expected following the election cycle. "About 80% of the total number of candidates registered for the preliminary vote are new faces in politics: workers from industrial and agricultural enterprises, business representatives, and public sector employees, such as teachers and doctors. There are also many young people under 35—over 20% of our candidates are young. These are activists from the Young Guard, volunteers, and community activists," Bryntsalov noted. He added that 67 SVO participants are participating in the preliminary vote. Among them is Lyudmila Bolilaya, a military medic from Stupino who became the first woman to be awarded the title Hero of the Russian Federation for her heroic deeds in the SVO zone. Special conditions are in place for this category of candidates: they will receive an additional 25% of the votes they receive. Electoral registration will continue until May 29. About 650,000 residents of the region over the age of 18 have already expressed their desire to vote. More IZ RU news in MAX
In the September State Duma elections, United Russia is projected to garner at least 55% of the votes on party lists. However, according to surveys by leading Russian pollsters, United Russia's support level currently fluctuates between 28% and 39%. However, the current rating does not equate to the election result, the expert reassured United Russia members: voter discipline is no less important, and United Russia is doing better in this regard than anyone else. Meanwhile, on April 24, the United Russia Duma faction held an off-site meeting, during which the outgoing deputies were briefed on the work to update the ideological and practical components of the "People's Program." Particular attention was paid to the ruling party's electoral ratings. The offsite meeting, which was held behind closed doors at the party's central executive committee building, was announced the previous afternoon and came as a surprise to many United Russia members. Several sources within United Russia told Kommersant that some deputies even had to return their tickets to their home cities, where they traditionally travel for "regional week." Subscribe to Kommersant on Telegram | MAX | Leave boosts
Where does the news lean?
17YES2NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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