Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
ResolvedOutcome: No$4.0Mas of
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26 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
A Just Russia party has overcome the 5% barrier to enter the State Duma on its party list.
"A Just Russia" clears the 5% threshold after processing 96.95% of the votes. Thus, the party enters the State Duma via party lists.
A Just Russia party enters the State Duma with 5% of the vote.
With 96.91% of the ballots processed, the A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma on party lists, the Central Election Commission reported. RBC is always at hand – download the app for iOS and Android
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Parliamentary elections in Russia: landslide victory for Putin's party, which wins a record number of seats in the Duma
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URGENTLY "A Just Russia" receives 4 preliminary parliamentary seats - Pamfilova
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"A JUST RUSSIA" PRELIMINARY RECEIVES FOUR DEPUTY SEATS - PAMFILOVA
"A Just Russia" still has a chance to overcome the five percent barrier, said Central Election Commission head Ella Pamfilova. More IZ RU news in MAX [in reply to: Voter turnout in the State Duma elections was 59.32%, said Central Election Commission head Ella Pamfilova. More than 62.6 million Russians took part in the vote. More IZ RU news in MAX]
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A JUST RUSSIA HAS AN EVEN BIGGER CHANCE OF OVERCOMING THE 5-PERCENT BARRIER; IT CURRENTLY HAS 4.96% - PAMFILOVA
United Russia has received not just a constitutional majority in the 9th State Duma, but the largest faction in its history, according to the latest preliminary data published by the Central Election Commission. According to the party lists, after 94.41% of the protocols have been processed, United Russia has received 57.83% of the votes. Next comes the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, with 13.81% of the votes, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia with 8.96%, New People with 7.97%, and A Just Russia with 4.96%. The latter is currently below the 5% threshold and risks not getting into the State Duma. The votes of the parties that did not pass the 5% threshold are proportionally distributed among the new factions. If A Just Russia does manage to surpass the 5% mark, then United Russia, through party lists, will be able to secure 139 of the 225 parliamentary seats. In that case, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will form the second-largest faction, with 33 seats. The LDPR will then have 22 seats, New People - 19, and A Just Russia - 12. But if Sergei Mironov's party does not get into the State Duma, the number of mandates for United Russia will increase to 147. A Duma without the A Just Russia faction will also mean that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will receive 35 mandates, the LDPR - 23, and New People - 20. Single-mandate constituencies bring United Russia even more seats. Currently, the party is leading in 209 out of 225 constituencies. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) has received five mandates, A Just Russia and independent candidates have received four each, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) has received two, and Rodina has received one. Thus, United Russia could receive between 348 and 356 seats in the State Duma. Previously, the largest faction in United Russia was the one formed following the 2016 elections, with 343 deputies. RBC app for iOS and Android
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"A JUST RUSSIA" PARTY GAINS 4.96% OF THE VOTES IN THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS IN THE FEDERAL DISTRICT, ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF MORE THAN 95% OF THE PROTOCOLS PROCESSED, AND TAKE FIFTH PLACE - DATA FROM THE CEC
A Just Russia party has failed to secure a seat in the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted, according to the Central Election Commission. The party failed to secure the 5% needed to enter the lower house. According to current results, United Russia will form a majority in the State Duma. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and New People are also entering parliament. Voter turnout at the polls exceeded 56%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
The Kremlin is losing its "second leg" following the State Duma elections. According to the latest data, A Just Russia will fail to clear the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections. This effectively marks the end of the political project that was created in the 2000s as a "second leg of power." This will allow United Russia to significantly increase its presence in the new Duma. An Agency source claims that Sergei Kiriyenko, the current curator of the Kremlin's domestic policy, opposed retaining A Just Russia in the new State Duma. Details. With 92.84% of the votes processed, United Russia has 57.84%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) is second with 13.82%. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) is next with 8.93%, followed by New People with 7.97%. A Just Russia has 4.96%. Just taking into account its results on the party lists, United Russia can count on 130 seats in the State Duma; according to the Central Election Commission, United Russia will receive another 208 seats in single-mandate constituencies. The seats that A Just Russia would have won on the party lists will be distributed proportionally among the other parties, electoral expert Stanislav Andreychuk told Agency. Votes cast for other parties that did not pass the 5% threshold will be redistributed in the same manner. In total, the parties that failed to pass the Duma threshold (including A Just Russia) garnered around 10%. This means that approximately 22-23 of the 225 seats allocated by party lists will be redistributed among the parties that made it into parliament. This means that United Russia can expect to win over 350 seats in the new Duma, compared to 324 seats in the 2021 elections. Judging by the results of the party list and single-mandate constituency votes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) will have significantly fewer seats in these elections, while New People and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) will have several more. Five Communists, four Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) and independents, two LDPR representatives, and one candidate from the Rodina party are running for the State Duma in single-mandate constituencies. "Second Leg." A Just Russia emerged in 2006 from the merger of Rodina, the Pensioners' Party, and the Party of Life as a second party of power. The Kremlin hoped to create on the left flank what Vladislav Surkov, then the Kremlin's domestic policy supervisor, called a "second leg": "Society doesn't have a 'second leg' to step onto when the first one goes numb." The party also had a more utilitarian goal: to steal votes from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The party was led by Sergei Mironov, then Speaker of the Federation Council, who owed his federal career to his acquaintance with Vladimir Putin in the 1990s. In the first elections in 2007, SR received 7.74%, in 2011 – 13.25%, in 2016 – 6.22%, and in 2021 – 7.46%. A source close to the Kremlin previously told Agency that Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko did not want A Just Russia to be represented in the new State Duma. Sovereign Revolutionary Party leader Sergei Mironov made no public appearances during the final month of the election campaign. His last public appearance was on August 21 in the Altai Krai. He then appeared for the first time in a video posted on social media on Friday (more details here). What does this mean? Eliminating the "second leg" will help the Kremlin demonstrate a more serious "consolidation" of society around the war than if the party remained in place. More on this here. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted.
Parliamentary elections: Russia – Kremlin party expands its two-thirds majority
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 85% of the ballots have been processed.
"A Just Russia" Doesn't Get 5% to Enter the State Duma After 82.19% of the protocols have been processed, "United Russia" has 57.76% of the votes in the State Duma elections The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 13.89%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has 8.77%, New People has 7.97%, and "A Just Russia" has 4.99%. To enter the State Duma, it is necessary to get at least 5% of the votes. #elections2026
A Just Russia falls short of the 5% threshold needed to enter the State Duma.
"A Just Russia" has dropped below 5% in the State Duma elections after 79.08% of the votes have been processed. Four parties are entering the Duma: "United Russia" is gaining 57.69%; CPRF - 13.96%; LDPR - 8.75%; "New People" - 7.97%. To stay up to date with the latest news: Website | MAX | Telegram
A Just Russia party fell below the 5% threshold in the Duma elections.
The A Just Russia party list does not receive the required 5% of votes in the elections for deputies of the ninth State Duma, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC) data after processing over 79% of the protocols.
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A JUST RUSSIA FAILED TO OVERCOME THE 5% BARRIER IN THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS, AFTER PROCESSING MORE THAN 79% OF THE PROTOCOLS, ACCORDING TO THE CEC.
Federal exit poll following the second day of the 2026 elections. United Russia – 53.5%; CPRF – 14.5%; LDPR – 10.1%; New People – 8.4%; A Just Russia – 6.0%; Pensioners' Party – 2.8%; Spoiled ballot – 1.5%. 37% of respondents refused to answer the questions.
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The New People party has risen to second place in terms of public support, according to a VTsIOM poll. The party's rating was 10.7%, up 1.2 percentage points over the week. United Russia remains in first place with 30.6% of the vote (-1.5 percentage points). The LDPR is in third place with 9.7%. The party lost 0.4 percentage points over the week and lost second place in the ranking. In fourth place is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation with a rating of 9.2% (-0.1 percentage points over the week), followed by A Just Russia with 5.3% (-0.1 percentage points). 9.6% of Russians would vote for non-parliamentary parties (+0.9 percentage points), while 12.6% of respondents (+0.6%) refuse to participate in the elections. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Where does the news lean?
1YES34NO36neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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