Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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Market pricing makes United Russia (ER) the favorite at 73% across 34 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Which party might fail to overcome the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections in September? — New People / A Just Russia / Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice / Communists of Russia / Rodina / Direct Democracy Party / Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"
Which party might fail to overcome the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections in September? — New People / A Just Russia / Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice / Communists of Russia / Rodina / Direct Democracy Party / Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"
The majority of potential voters for Yabloko, which was disqualified from the State Duma elections, will either ignore the vote or support New People. This is the conclusion reached by experts interviewed by Kommersant, based on recent sociological data. New People is not surprised by these assessments. The Public Opinion Foundation recorded a decline in the ratings of three parties at once: United Russia (from 37% to 33%), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (from 11% to 8%), and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (from 11% to 9%). New People's popularity increased from 5% to 8%. The options "I won't go to the polls" (from 10% to 16%) and "I don't know" (from 14% to 17%) showed a clear increase. According to VTsIOM, United Russia (from 34% to 36%), New People (from 8.7% to 10.4%), and the option "I wouldn't participate in the elections" (from 9.2% to 10.8%) showed a noticeable increase. The total share of supporters of non-parliamentary parties plummeted from 12.7% to 6.3%. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | on Telegram
Why did United Russia hold the second stage of its congress? The party approved the program it is going into the elections with and listened to its leaders. President Vladimir Putin also spoke at the congress. During the first stage of the congress, the party nominated its candidates. The second stage of the congress is needed, among other things, to send a media signal about Putin’s presence and to interpret his speech as unequivocal support for this particular party, believes Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. “The United Russia campaign is conservative in that it repeats previous techniques,” he says. “In this regard, the theme of the ‘People’s Program’ allows us to create pretexts during the election campaign, and subsequently interpret a high result as, among other things, a consequence of the effectiveness of this program’s tactics.” Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS Application | Android [in reply to: The United Russia congress adopted the party's popular platform, which it will take to the State Duma elections. The second stage of the congress featured a speech by State Duma deputy Denis Maidanov. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS app | Android]
Putin says he will "do everything in his power" to ensure a victory for the ruling party in the September lower house elections.
Today, the plenary session of the second stage of the 23rd United Russia Congress took place. Around three thousand delegates from across the country gathered in the hall—Heroes of the Central Military District, deputies, senators, regional heads, and experts. The main outcome was the adoption of the party's new People's Program for the next five years, which we will take to the State Duma elections. The program is based on proposals from 3.5 million people, more than 790,000 of whom were from residents of the Moscow Region. Demographics and family support, personnel, regional development, the economy and technology, and security are key areas of concern to people today and require special attention. The President emphasized the main thing: the people are the source of power, and the right of people to determine the future of their country through elections is inviolable. Vladimir Vladimirovich specifically spoke about the participants of the Central Military District—Heroes of Russia—whose experience should be in demand in civilian life, including in politics and public administration. We are already undertaking this work in the Moscow Region. Our "Heroes of the Moscow Region" program helps veterans adapt to civilian life, gain new knowledge and skills, and continue serving their country in civilian life. I thank Vladimir Vladimirovich for his support of our initiatives and his constant attention to residents' needs. The People's Program sets specific goals for the next five years, the results of which should be felt by people in every city in the Moscow Region. Subscribe to my channel on MAKS
Putin called the United Russia program an important and serious document that contains development guidelines for the coming years.
United Russia will urgently hold the third stage of its congress, where it will sum up the election results and adopt a manifesto – Medvedev
The United Russia congress approved the party's popular program, which it will take to the State Duma elections, a Vedomosti correspondent reports. The performer, State Duma deputy Denis Maidanov, spoke at the closing of the congress. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Vladimir Putin spoke at the second stage of the United Russia pre-election congress He stated that "all these years he has been counting on United Russia" and would like to support the party and wish it success. "Even in the most difficult conditions, we will not retreat from the principles of democracy," the Russian president said. He noted that veterans of the North Military District are among the United Russia candidates. They have "a deep understanding of the problems faced by front-line soldiers and their families," the Russian president emphasized. The upcoming elections will confirm Russia's resilience and its ability to withstand any external threats, Putin added. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
United Russia will hold its third congress, where it will sum up the election results and adopt a party manifesto with strategic goals for the next five years – Medvedev
URGENT: United Russia has become the leading political force in Russia - Putin
URGENT: Putin stated his support for United Russia and wished them success in the State Duma elections.
The main points of Putin's speech at the United Russia congress: The upcoming elections in Russia will be an expression of the common will of millions of Russians, their desire to ensure the sovereignty and security of the country The fighters on the line of contact who are fighting for the Motherland must certainly be cherished The terrorist attacks of the Kyiv regime reveal its neo-Nazi essence Putin expressed confidence that Russia's soldiers will not let us down, the whole country is with them "United Russia" is consolidating society, making a significant contribution to the national agenda Despite all the difficulties, Russia is developing, launching large-scale projects There should be no secondary issues for the authorities, every life situation of Russians important The head of state stated that he supports United Russia and wished the party success in the State Duma elections Read in "Max"
Putin stated that he supports United Russia and wished the party success in the State Duma elections.
4,436 candidates have been registered for the State Duma elections, according to updated data following the withdrawal of the Yabloko party, reported Central Election Commission Chairperson Ella Pamfilova. The federal party lists include 329 candidates from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, 295 from New People, 389 from United Russia, 243 from the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and 259 from A Just Russia. The lists of the Communists of Russia also include 265 candidates, the Pensioners' Party - 254, Rodina - 295, Direct Democracy - 236, and the Greens - 251. In addition, 18,478 candidates have been registered for the elections to 39 legislative assemblies. The Supreme Court previously upheld The decision to disqualify Yabloko from the State Duma elections following a lawsuit filed by the Rodina party. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: There will be no second number on the federal ballot for the State Duma elections, as the Central Election Commission excluded the Yabloko party, which was in that term, after the decision of the Appellate Collegium of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation came into force. Now there are 10 parties left on the ballot, and their numbers have not changed. Earlier, the Supreme Court upheld the decision to disqualify Yabloko from the State Duma elections following a lawsuit filed by the Rodina party. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
APEC experts have identified a "moderately competitive" scenario in Moscow's Leningrad District. There, United Russia candidate and SVO member Eldar Sharipov is likely to win, but with a narrow lead over his competitors – long-time SR deputy Galina Khovanskaya and New People candidate Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. In most districts, the campaign is "limitedly competitive": there is one leader in the district, and his opponents have little opportunity to expand their support. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS Application | Android [in reply to: United Russia could win all Moscow districts in the State Duma elections, according to a forecast by the Agency for Political and Economic Communications. There are 16 single-mandate districts in Moscow, and New People and A Just Russia could get up to one seat under the majoritarian system, in addition to United Russia, according to the Agency for Political and Economic Communications. According to the party lists, the ruling party could receive 41-44% of the vote. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation can count on 15-17% of the vote in the capital. New People could get 13-15%. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia could get 12-14%, and A Just Russia could get 4-6%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
The Central Election Commission removed Yabloko from the State Duma election ballot. The decision was based on the Supreme Court's position. Yabloko finished second on the ballot as a result of the July 30 draw. It was after this result that parliamentary opposition leaders began publicly condemning the party's anti-war stance, culminating in a lawsuit filed by the non-parliamentary Rodina party in the Supreme Court. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
There will be no second party on the State Duma election ballot, as the Central Election Commission expelled the Yabloko party, which was in the running for the term, after the decision of the Supreme Court's Appeals Board came into force. Now there are 10 parties left on the ballot, and their numbers have not changed. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
At its meeting on August 18, the Central Election Commission amended the ballot for the federal district elections to the State Duma. The Yabloko party's federal list was removed from the ballot. "Line number 2 is being excluded, but the numbering of the other lines on the ballot remains unchanged," said commission secretary Natalya Budarina. This, she said, is because the party numbers obtained by lottery are retained on the ballot. The decision was made unanimously. RBK channel on "Max" RBK app for iOS and Android
The Central Election Commission has excluded Yabloko from the federal ballot for the Duma elections, leaving 10 parties on it. Earlier, the Rodina party filed a lawsuit to remove the party from the elections. The Supreme Court upheld the lawsuit. The basis for the decision was, in particular, copyright violations during the election campaign and transfers of funds to the election fund from individuals who received funding from abroad. The day before, the Supreme Court upheld the decision to remove Yabloko from the State Duma elections. More IZ RU news in MAX
The Central Electoral Commission has changed the text of the federal ballot for the State Duma elections, removing the Yabloko party from the list, a RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
The Russian Central Election Commission has decided to remove information about Yabloko from the federal ballot for the State Duma elections.
United Russia could win in all Moscow districts in the State Duma elections, according to a forecast by the Agency for Political and Economic Communications. There are 16 single-mandate districts in Moscow, and in addition to United Russia, New People and A Just Russia could get up to one seat under the majoritarian system, according to the Agency for Political and Economic Communications. According to the lists, the ruling party could receive 41-44% of the vote. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation can count on 15-17% of the vote in the capital. New People could get 13-15%. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia could get 12-14%, and A Just Russia could get 4-6%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Yabloko party founder Grigory Yavlinsky stated that the party had accomplished the main goal of its election campaign, despite being disqualified from the State Duma elections. His statement was published on the party's website. According to the politician, Yabloko managed to convey to voters a position that differs from the proposals of other campaign participants. Yavlinsky called the Supreme Court's decision to disqualify the party from the elections "unprecedented." However, Yabloko will continue to participate in the 2026 elections. 127 party candidates continue to run for the State Duma in single-mandate constituencies, and party lists have been admitted to elections to the parliaments of the Novgorod, Kaliningrad, Sverdlovsk, Tomsk, and Pskov regions. RBC channel on "Max"
RBC app for iOS and Android [in reply to: The Supreme Court rejected Yabloko's appeal. The decision to disqualify the party from the elections remains in effect. Both the defendant and the plaintiff, the Rodina party, previously filed appeals against the decision. Yabloko told RBC that it will appeal to the Presidium of the Supreme Court in the near future. The hearing was attended by Vladimir Zaitsev, Chairman of the Appellate Board of the Supreme Court, his deputy Igor Zinchenko, and Judge Denis Tyutin. Rodina was represented by its representative, Alexei Novoselov; the Central Election Commission (CEC) was represented by commission representative Sergei Sakharov; Yabloko was represented by party chairman Nikolai Rybakov, its representatives, Yaroslav Shcherbakov and Vitaly Isakov, and lawyer Gadzhi Aliyev. RBK Channel on Max
RBK app for iOS and Android]
The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation will consider the issue of removing Yabloko from the ballot at its meeting on August 18 – draft agenda
The Russian Central Election Commission will consider the issue of removing Yabloko from the ballot at its meeting on August 18, according to the commission's agenda. More IZ RU news in MAX
The Central Election Commission will consider the issue of removing Yabloko from the ballot at its next meeting, Deputy Chairman of the Central Election Commission Nikolai Bulaev announced. "The ballots have not yet been prepared. They have just been approved, and are being adjusted. After receiving the court's decision, the Central Election Commission will be obliged to amend the ballot. I think we will have to consider this issue at the next CEC meeting in accordance with the court's decision," Bulaev told TASS. As electoral lawyer Oleg Zakharov explained to Vedomosti, if a party list is removed before the ballots are printed, the Central Election Commission will re-approve the ballot form. According to him, if Yabloko drops out, the LDPR, which is running at No. 3, will not become No. 2, since by law the number obtained in the draw is retained until the end of the election campaign. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Yabloko will not participate in the State Duma elections: the decision to deregister the party's federal list has entered into force. Yabloko members plan to file a complaint with the Presidium of the Supreme Court. Yabloko's representative to the Russian Central Election Commission, Ivan Bolshakov, previously told Vedomosti that the party was preparing lawsuits to protect its business reputation against Rodina chairman Alexei Zhuravlev and other leaders of parliamentary parties who "made defamatory statements" against Yabloko. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation will be obligated to consider the issue of changing the ballot after receiving a court decision to deregister the list of Yabloko candidates for the State Duma elections, Bulaev told Interfax.
The decision to deregister Yabloko's federal list for the State Duma elections has entered into force. The party announced that it plans to file a complaint with the Presidium of the Supreme Court. Yabloko's representative to the Russian Central Election Commission, Ivan Bolshakov, previously told Vedomosti that the party was preparing lawsuits to protect its business reputation against Rodina chairman Alexei Zhuravlev and other leaders of parliamentary parties who "made defamatory statements" against Yabloko. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The Supreme Court upheld the decision to disqualify Yabloko from the State Duma elections. On August 17, the court heard the party's appeal. On August 10, the Supreme Court upheld Rodina's claim to disqualify Yabloko from the elections. Rodina accused its opponents of alleged copyright infringement during campaigning, foreign financing, and extremism. The court did not find extremism in Yabloko's activities, but stated that there were violations of intellectual property laws in the financing of the election campaign and the conduct of pre-election campaigning. The Supreme Court also rejected Rodina's appeal. The party disagreed with certain arguments in the Supreme Court's decision concerning the violation of intellectual property rights. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
The Supreme Court upheld the decision to disqualify Yabloko from the State Duma elections. The court rejected the party's appeal. According to it, the decision to disqualify Yabloko from the elections to the lower house of parliament has entered into force. On August 10, the Supreme Court upheld the administrative claim of the Rodina party and canceled the registration of Yabloko's federal list for the State Duma elections. It was established that this party conducted campaigning in violation of intellectual property laws, and funds were also deposited into its account from individuals who received money through funding from foreign states. Zvezdanews in MAX [in reply to: The Yabloko party was disqualified from the elections to the Russian State Duma. The Russian Supreme Court has upheld the Rodina party's claim. Here's the highlights: The Rodina party filed a lawsuit to deregister the federal list of candidates on Friday. Yabloko was accused of promoting LGBT* rights, extremism, inciting social discord, and violating the rules for compiling the electoral list. At the Supreme Court hearing, a Rodina representative listed materials posted on Yabloko's website and social media that violate election campaigning rules and copyright. What the Rodina representative said: Among the claims: the use of the phrase "Let there always be sunshine, let there always be mom," stills from the 1967 film "War and Peace," images of Dmitry Medvedev, Victoria Bonya, and other AI-generated materials. The party did not identify the authors of the works or cite their sources when publishing them. Also, the Yabloko website posted emblems of other parliamentary parties without the consent of the copyright holders. A number of materials in support of Yabloko were distributed by foreign agents, as well as through foreign social networks, with payment not coming from the election fund. 218 Yabloko State Duma candidates received notices of the absence of foreign assets even before the party congress, thereby violating the law at the nomination and registration stage. Yabloko's campaign expenses significantly exceed established limits for its electoral fund. Yabloko denied the accusations. * — The LGBT movement is recognized as extremist in the Russian Federation and is banned. Video not loading? Watch in MAX]
What is this event about?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.