Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: No$23Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
29 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Tariff Refunds Have Started Being Paid by Trump Administration
U.S. companies should give Trump tariff refunds to workers as bonuses or raises: Greer
Did tariff dividend checks just become more likely? Economists weigh in
U.S. authorities revamp system to accept Trump tariff refunds on dedicated website
Trump tariffs: Martin Heinrich bill would give families tax rebate for higher import costs
Exclusive: Trump tariffs: Martin Heinrich bill would give families tax rebate for higher import costs
Trump officials kick off process to try to replace tariffs struck down by supreme court
NOBloomberg99%match88¢+14%
Donald Trump’s Supreme Court setback on tariffs has handed Southeast Asia leaders a conundrum: should they renegotiate their deals? Or just back off?
NOBloomberg98%match88¢+14%
In this Bloomberg Originals documentary, we take stock of what the president promised from his trade war, what’s actually happened and what the future looks like since the Supreme Court brought its gavel down
NOReuters98%match88¢+14%
After the Supreme Court struck down most Trump-era tariffs, the EU delayed ratifying its US trade deal and pushed ahead with ‘Made in Europe’ incentives for key sectors. Economist Holger Schemieding of Berenberg weighs in
NOReuters Business98%match88¢+14%
WATCH: After the Supreme Court struck down most Trump-era tariffs, the EU delayed ratifying its US trade deal and pushed ahead with ‘Made in Europe’ incentives for key sectors. Economist Holger Schemieding of Berenberg weighs in
NOThe Wall Street Journal99%match88¢+14%
The Supreme Court’s tossing of President Trump’s tariffs has sent businesses calculating how to claw back the levies they have been paying—or sell the rights at a discount now
NOCNBC98%match87¢+15%
Trump insists trade deals safe after Supreme Court ruling upends tariff authority, but partners aren’t so sure
YESReuters98%match17¢-100%
Prices investors will pay for tariff refund claims surge after Supreme Court decision
YESReuters98%match20¢-100%
Prices investors will pay for tariff refund claims surge after Supreme Court decision
NOFirst Squawk98%match81¢+23%
Trump expressed disappointment over the Supreme Court’s decision regarding tariffs, labeling the outcome as “very unfortunate” and highlighting its potential impact on trade policy.
NOtradfi news98%match81¢+23%
*TRUMP: SUPREME COURT RULING ON TARIFFS WAS VERY UNFORTUNATE *TRUMP: GOOD NEWS IS NEARLY ALL COUNTRIES WANT TO KEEP DEALS
NOunusual_whales98%match81¢+23%
[Replying to @unusual_whales] The agency said in a message to shippers, opens new tab on its Cargo Systems Messaging Service (CSMS) that it will de-activate all tariff codes associated with President Donald Trump's prior IEEPA-related orders as of Tuesday. Read more: >
NOunusual_whales98%match76¢+32%
[Replying to @unusual_whales] SCOTUS ruled against Trump's tariffs. Read more: >
NOFirst Squawk98%match76¢+32%
DEMOCRATS INCLUDING SHERROD BROWN AND ELIZABETH WARREN ARE PUSHING LEGISLATION TO REFUND BILLIONS IN OVERTURNED TARIFFS IMPOSED BY DONALD TRUMP, ESCALATING A PARTISAN FIGHT OVER TRADE POLICY AND HOUSEHOLD RELIEF AFTER THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK DOWN THE LEVIES.
NOCNBC99%match76¢+32%
Supreme Court ruling throws Trump administration's tariff strategy into flux. What it means for global trade, U.S. economy
NOBloomberg98%match76¢+32%
Donald Trump’s defeat on tariffs before the Supreme Court continued to resonate Monday as US trading partners stepped back to reassess earlier deals: Here’s your Evening Briefing
NOFirst Squawk98%match76¢+32%
FITCH: DECISION TO DISALLOW USE OF THE INTERNATIONAL EMERGENCY ECONOMIC POWERS ACT CREATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AROUND U.S. TRADE POLICY.
NOCNBC98%match76¢+32%
The odds of Trump's $2,000 tariff dividend checks are 'now effectively zero', expert says
NOBloomberg98%match76¢+32%
Treasuries rose at the start of the week as President Trump’s vows to press ahead with his trade war after the Supreme Court struck down his tariffs cast new uncertainty over global markets
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match24¢-100%
TRUMP ON TARIFFS: U.S. SUPREME COURT 'ACCIDENTALLY AND UNWITTINGLY' GAVE PRESIDENT 'FAR MORE POWERS AND STRENGTH' THAN BEFORE THEIR RULING
NOBloomberg98%match76¢+32%
In a swift reversal of fortunes, countries that had been hardest hit by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have emerged as the biggest winners from the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his emergency levies. Read more: : Raul Ariano/Bloomberg
NOBloomberg98%match76¢+32%
In a swift reversal of fortunes, countries that had been hardest hit by US President Trump’s tariffs have emerged as the biggest winners from the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his emergency levies
NOBenzinga98%match76¢+32%
RT @Benzinga: Supreme Court Rules Against Trump's Tariffs: These 10 Stocks Are Soaring
Where does the news lean?
24YES53NO26neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
gamma-backfill