Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: No$22Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Here's what we know about the leaders who defected from the Rapid Support Forces... Is the stage of internal disintegration approaching? 4 defections within the ranks of the "Rapid Support Forces" leadership Leader Ali Rizqallah "Al-Safna" is the latest to defect after a prominent role in the battles of Darfur and Kordofan He was preceded by Brigadier General "Al-Nour Al-Qubba" and the leader Bishara Al-Hawira, and before them Abu Aqila Kikel Three of the defecting leaders come from the "Mahamid" tribe, the most prominent tribal pillar of support. Observers: The defection of Al-Hawira is the most significant due to its location in "Bara," the army's stronghold in Kordofan. Reports: Leader Musa Hilal is the link with the army after his son was killed by the Rapid Support Forces Rapid Support Forces leaders: The departure of some commanders does not change the balance of power on the ground
Following the defections from Al-Safna, Al-Nour Qubba, Abu Rahaf, and Al-Hawira, new splits have occurred within the Rapid Support Forces, and secret negotiations are underway between senior commanders and the Sudanese army. The Kordofan Brave Movement announces its withdrawal from the Rapid Support Forces There are names and military groups that the army is negotiating with for defection as well Lieutenant Colonel Ismail Ali Abdulrahman "Abu Rahaf" defected along with 6 officers from the Al-Mahamid tribe Prominent leader Bishara al-Hawira defected, accompanied by a field force comprising 11 combat vehicles. Brigadier General Al-Nur Ahmed Adam, one of the founding leaders of the Rapid Support Forces, has defected Ali Rizqallah, known as Al-Safina, who is considered one of the most prominent field commanders who led the battles of Khartoum and Al-Fashir, has defected.
He possesses a large force and significant military equipment, which constitutes a major blow. A prominent leader in the Rapid Support Forces, Ali Zarqallah, known as "Al-Safna," announced his defection in a video recording, stating that he is a peace advocate.
Rapid Support Forces field commander Ali Rizqallah "Al-Safna," who oversaw operations in Darfur and Kordofan, announces his defection.
He has a very large force and military equipment... Prominent Rapid Support Forces leader Ali Rizqallah, known as "Al-Safna," announces his defection in a video recording.
Rapid Support Forces commander Ali Rizqallah, known as "Al-Safna," announces his defection.
Sudan: Rapid Support Forces field commander Ali Rizqallah, known as "Al-Safna," announces his defection.
Arab League holds extraordinary meeting to review Khartoum attacks The Arab League Council at the level of permanent representatives will hold an extraordinary meeting on Sunday, at the request of the Sudanese government, to discuss the serious security developments that have occurred at Khartoum International Airport and several other locations in the capital. The armed conflict between the Sudanese army, commanded by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Mohammed Hamdan Daqlou, has been ongoing since April 1402. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
"Khartoum is safe and secure and will remain so," Burhan says. "No negotiations or peace with the Rapid Support Forces."
"Khartoum is safe and secure and will remain so," Burhan said, adding: "There will be no negotiations or peace with the Rapid Support Forces." The event
Major General Al-Nur Al-Qubba, who defected from the Rapid Support Forces: The army and its supporting forces made great efforts that led to the control of Khartoum and its suburbs and most Sudanese cities.
Where does the news lean?
2YES19NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.