Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?UAE
Open$90Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Sources: The UAE's hostile statement regarding the cessation of all trade and financial transactions with Iran, an unprecedented and surprising move, along with the positions taken today by Trump and other US officials concerning the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of negotiations, must be assessed within the framework of a coherent and unified strategy. The objective of this strategy appears to be to increase economic pressure, restrict financial resources, and, in the next phase, escalate military and security pressure on Iran. The synchronization of these actions suggests the formation of a new cycle of economic and military pressure and siege against Iran.
Following the Islamic Republic's missile attack, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement announcing that all trade, commerce and financial transactions with Iran have been suspended until further notice. Afra Al Hameli, Director of the Strategic Communications Department of the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the statement denied reports about the continuation of economic relations between the UAE and the Islamic Republic. Emphasizing the UAE's commitment to dialogue, cooperation and regional integration as tools to maintain peace, stability and prosperity, Al Hameli said that due to the escalation of regional tensions that have undermined regional and international security, all trade, commerce and financial transactions with Iran have been suspended until further notice. He added that the UAE remains committed to protecting the integrity of the international financial system, within the framework of international law and the highest global standards.
Iran launched a ballistic missile at the UAE, amid stalled negotiations with the US... This may be the first attack in about three months.
The first direct commercial flight from Iran to the UAE since the war began has departed, CNN reports. According to the airport's website, the Sepehran Airlines plane landed at Dubai International Airport at 1:39 PM. Another flight from Dubai to Tehran is scheduled for today. During the US-Israeli war, the UAE suffered the most from Tehran's attacks, CNN notes. Iran responded by launching about 2,000 missiles and drones at the UAE, targeting military, energy, and civilian targets. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Washington and Tehran have resumed mutual strikes, jeopardizing the ceasefire, Bloomberg writes. American aircraft struck intelligence infrastructure and air defense systems of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran. In retaliation, Tehran attacked eight key US military facilities in the region. Both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement: the US claims that Iran was the first to attack container ships on June 25. Tehran calls Washington's actions "a clear violation of the memorandum." The settlement talks scheduled for June 29 are in doubt, the agency notes. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
Where does the news lean?
1YES6NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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