Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Other

OpenVol$617KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOJordan State Media92%match99¢+1%
Reuters - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: There are no ongoing talks between #Iran and the #UnitedStates, and Tehran will not begin any talks as long as Washington violates the interim agreement reached in June, while noting that messages are being exchanged through intermediaries. Araqchi reiterated Iran's position that an agreement concerning the #Strait_of_Hormuz between Tehran and Muscat is in its "final stages," but clarified that this agreement will not lead to the reopening of the strategic waterway at present. In statements carried by the Mehr News Agency, Araqchi said that the agreement will determine new shipping routes that will be used once the United States fulfills other conditions and the strait is reopened to navigation.
YESalarabiya99%match0¢
Al Arabiya correspondent Abdullah Khalouf: Islamabad will host a new round of negotiations on July 11 to ease tensions between the US and Iran. The Doha round was dedicated to discussing the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, but the Iranian delegation tried to raise many other issues. Tehran wants some role in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for what it says are the failure to meet its demands.

Where does the news lean?

2YES1NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.

What would make this resolve YES?

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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