Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)Pause–Pause–Pause
Open$241Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 37% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES37¢
NO63¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESReuters93%match60¢-38%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
#Video The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against it, advocating for a rate hike. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos summarized the three key takeaways from Fed Chairman Warsh's second policy meeting.
Treasury Yields Stay Near Decades-High After Fed Pause. Long-Term Borrowing Costs Still Under Pressure. • The benchmark 30-year Treasury yield remained near its highest level in almost two decades as markets weighed the Fed's latest policy decision, inflation data and expectations for additional rate hikes later this year.
gm • • FED held rates, how are you positioned?
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, but three officials oppose raising rates, fueling expectations of a September rate hike due to persistently high inflation.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials opposed, arguing for a rate hike. The chairman said, "We will take action if necessary."
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials opposed, arguing for a rate hike. The chairman stated, "We will stick to the 2% target."
The decision to hold interest rates steady points to Kevin Warsh's growing indirect influence on the Federal Open Market Committee, despite a significant faction, including three dissenting members, according to Bloomberg. Whether this means rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year, or whether the difficult decision has been postponed until September, will depend on inflation and jobs data in the coming period. Three Federal Reserve members voted against holding rates steady: Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed; Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed; and Lori Logan, president of the Dallas Fed. They preferred a quarter-point rate hike instead. #Arabic_Business
Live: “I wouldn’t characterize what we did as anything like a pause,” Warsh said in response to a question about the Fed holding rates steady today. “I would characterize what we did as a rigorous review as the economic situation.”
Live: Fed holds interest rates steady, but 3 officials vote for hike
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady but not without opposition from three officials who have expressed concern over inflation and wanted to hike. • • Despite increasing support among some officials for a rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. • • Full details:
The US Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, despite three officials opposing a rate hike.
[Breaking] US Fed freezes interest rates for 5th consecutive time... “9-3”
Fed leaves key interest rate unchanged
The Federal Reserve held rates steady for the 5th strait meeting this year. It was a 9 to 3 vote with the Cleveland Fed President, Dallas Fed President, and Minneapolis Fed President wanting a .25% rate increase. #FederalReserve
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, while assessing the situation in the Middle East; three officials called for a rate hike.
The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold interest rates steady.
Divided Fed holds interest rates steady, but three members voted to hike
Divided Fed holds interest rates steady, but three members voted to hike
Live: The decision puts to rest speculation that had been brewing in the lead up to this meeting that the Fed was going to raise rates. That was based on a view that Warsh would seek to bolster his credibility after staking his reputation on getting inflation down since taking over as chairman. By holding rates steady today, the focus now shifts to the Fed’s next meeting in September.
Where does the news lean?
34YES4NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 65% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.