Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)Pause–Cut–Cut
Open$28Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED • • July inflation showed little cause for alarm: • • Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y • Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y • Energy: -1.5% • • Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike. • • For now, hold remains the base case. •
US GOVTS/SOFR UPDATE – FOMC policy-sensitive White pack juiced by soft employment data; rate cut chances dive
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it will hold interest rates steady due to concerns about elevated inflation amid the war in Iran. • • Fed policymakers voted 9-3 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. • • The move follows the central bank's decision to hold rates steady in January, March, April and June following three successive 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December to close out last year. • • Many Americans are now wondering if there will be a Fed rate cut before 2027. • • Our sponsor Kalshi’s prediction market shows a 16% chance. • •
"The old guard is worried," "the hawks' camp has grown": Donald Trump has appointed a new chairman to head the Fed to achieve a rate cut, but the central bank is expected to hold off a little longer.
Warsh's early tone signals continuity, not change. No cuts expected this year according to CME's FedWatch. A hike toward the end of the year is still an open question. Neither this week's CPI print nor the recent weak labor report changes the Fed's stance, since they look past single-month trends.
Where does the news lean?
6YES12NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.