Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Odds jumped to 31% on Jul 29, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? On , the market’s odds jumped from 22¢ to 31¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from coindesk.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match22¢
+5m23¢
+30m25.5¢
+1h31¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralcoindesk.com97%match
Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh's policy roadmap. • For the first time in several years, markets were somewhat split on whether the U.S. central bank would hike rates.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$268K

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Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.