Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)Other
Open$316Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 60% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES60¢
NO41¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Where does the news lean?
2YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.