Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
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Market pricing makes Other the favorite at 60% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Is there nearly a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September? Yerlan gives three reasons: the market is overvaluing it.
WARSH SPEECH PUTS SEPTEMBER HIKE BACK IN PLAY • • Markets sharply repriced the September Fed decision following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. • • The probability of the Fed holding rates dropped from 71% before the speech to 50%, while odds of a 25bp hike jumped from 30% to 49%. • • A rate cut remains virtually off the table at 1%. • • Warsh’s inflation-focused message has turned September into a near coin flip. •
Minutes from Wednesday's meeting showed that the number of Federal Reserve officials who supported raising interest rates last month actually exceeded the three who formally voted against it; other officials also hinted that they would support a rate hike if inflation failed to improve.
Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
US Money-Mkt Close – Rates fall as data gives Fed fodder to pause
US Money-Mkt Close – Rates fall as data gives Fed fodder to pause
US Money-Mkt Close – Rates fall as data gives Fed fodder to pause
TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •
TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •
TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •
TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •
US GOVTS – Treasuries bid extends as tame PPI, jobless claims give fodder to Sept Fed pause
US GOVTS – Treasuries bid extends as tame PPI, jobless claims give fodder to Sept Fed pause
Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold
Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold
Bitcoin eyes $63K as US CPI relief sends September Fed rate pause odds to 60%
Bitcoin eyes $63K as US CPI relief sends September Fed rate pause odds to 60%
GOLDMAN: JULY CPI SUPPORTS SEPTEMBER HOLD • • Goldman Sachs Asset Management called July CPI “encouraging,” saying contained core inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. • • Lindsay Rosner said the report adds to signs that underlying inflation is moderating. • • However, another inflation report is due before the September FOMC meeting, meaning the outlook could still shift. • • For now, the in-line CPI print supports a Fed pause.
GOLDMAN: JULY CPI SUPPORTS SEPTEMBER HOLD • • Goldman Sachs Asset Management called July CPI “encouraging,” saying contained core inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. • • Lindsay Rosner said the report adds to signs that underlying inflation is moderating. • • However, another inflation report is due before the September FOMC meeting, meaning the outlook could still shift. • • For now, the in-line CPI print supports a Fed pause.
CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED • • July inflation showed little cause for alarm: • • Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y • Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y • Energy: -1.5% • • Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike. • • For now, hold remains the base case. •
US GOVTS/SOFR UPDATE – FOMC policy-sensitive White pack juiced by soft employment data; rate cut chances dive
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Why a Fed Rate Cut Is Coming and How the Market Will React -- Barrons.com
EY: FED LIKELY TO STAY ON HOLD THROUGH YEAR-END • • EY-Parthenon expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through year-end, even after Friday's jobs report. • • Wall Street expects July payrolls to rise 83K, but EY says the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to shift the Fed's focus. • • The firm says only broader, more persistent inflation or a meaningful reacceleration in hiring would justify further rate hikes.
EY: FED LIKELY TO STAY ON HOLD THROUGH YEAR-END • • EY-Parthenon expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through year-end, even after Friday's jobs report. • • Wall Street expects July payrolls to rise 83K, but EY says the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to shift the Fed's focus. • • The firm says only broader, more persistent inflation or a meaningful reacceleration in hiring would justify further rate hikes.
EY: FED LIKELY TO STAY ON HOLD THROUGH YEAR-END • • EY-Parthenon expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through year-end, even after Friday's jobs report. • • Wall Street expects July payrolls to rise 83K, but EY says the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to shift the Fed's focus. • • The firm says only broader, more persistent inflation or a meaningful reacceleration in hiring would justify further rate hikes.
EY: FED LIKELY TO STAY ON HOLD THROUGH YEAR-END • • EY-Parthenon expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through year-end, even after Friday's jobs report. • • Wall Street expects July payrolls to rise 83K, but EY says the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to shift the Fed's focus. • • The firm says only broader, more persistent inflation or a meaningful reacceleration in hiring would justify further rate hikes.
FED SEPTEMBER: MARKETS & WALL STREET ARE SPLIT • • Kalshi odds: • • Hold: 49% • • +25bp: 47% • • >25bp: 2% • • Wall Street outlook: • • BofA: +25bp in Sep, then Oct & Dec • • JPM: Hold in Sep, hike in Dec • • Goldman: Hold, no more hikes • • Morgan Stanley: Hold through year-end • • Barclays: Hold through year-end • • Citi: Hold in Sep, then cuts in Oct, Dec & Jan •
FED SEPTEMBER: MARKETS & WALL STREET ARE SPLIT • • Kalshi odds: • • Hold: 49% • • +25bp: 47% • • >25bp: 2% • • Wall Street outlook: • • BofA: +25bp in Sep, then Oct & Dec • • JPM: Hold in Sep, hike in Dec • • Goldman: Hold, no more hikes • • Morgan Stanley: Hold through year-end • • Barclays: Hold through year-end • • Citi: Hold in Sep, then cuts in Oct, Dec & Jan •
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm