ECB Interest Rates: June 202625 bps Increase
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$272Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged but may signal a future hike to combat surging consumer prices. • • More Here →
The ECB is set to keep interest rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting, as inflation concerns lead to expectations of a June rate hike.
ECB's Simkus: The ECB shouldn't raise interest rates in April •
ECB has ‘luxury’ to wait on interest rate rises, Kazaks tells FT
ECB has ‘luxury’ to wait on interest rate rises, says top policymaker
ECB's de Guindos: ECB has to keep cool head, be cautious on rates •
ECB'S DE GUINDOS: ECB HAS TO KEEP COOL HEAD, BE CAUTIOUS ON RATES
NOReuters99%match66¢-100%
ECB’s De Guindos: ECB Has to Keep Cool Head, Be Cautious on Rates
OECD PREDICTS A SLIGHT RISE IN ECB INTEREST RATES IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2026.
POLL-ECB still set to hold interest rates through 2026, most economists say
ECB LAGARDE SAYS ECB READY TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES ‘AT ANY MEETING
Where does the news lean?
5YES8NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
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See all outcomes for ECB Interest Rates: June 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.