ECB Interest Rates: June 202650+ bps increase
ResolvedOutcome: No$292Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The ECB is set to keep interest rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting, as inflation concerns lead to expectations of a June rate hike.
Poll: ECB to hold deposit rate at 2.00% through 2026, say 38 of 60 economists (versus 67 of 72 in March 13th poll). ECB to hike deposit rate at least once in 2026, say 21 of 60 economists (versus 3 of 72 in March)
POLL-ECB still set to hold interest rates through 2026, most economists say
Where does the news lean?
1YES5NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
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See all outcomes for ECB Interest Rates: June 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.