Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?The Democrats

OpenVol$14KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 68% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES68¢
NO32¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESN12 Reporter91%match36¢+89%
The Democrats' coalition negotiation team - Avi Nissenkorn - Minister of Justice and former Chairman of the Histadrut. Yossi Kochik - Former Director General of the Prime Minister's Office. Omer Loveton Granot - Director General of the Democrats. Mia Bengal - Strategic and Media Advisor. Members of the parliamentary team: MKs Naama Lazimi, Gilad Kariv, Efrat Reitan and Attorney General Ram Shefa.
YESaa_arabic92%match40¢+70%
#Breaking | The Israeli "Democrats" party decides to recommend Gadi Eisenkot to form the new government, which gives him a majority of parliamentary recommendations according to estimates (Broadcasting Authority)

Where does the news lean?

3YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.

What would make this resolve YES?

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

Sourcemain.knesset.gov.il

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