Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?New Economic Party / The Reservists
Open$13Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
"United Against Netanyahu": Israeli Opposition Recommends Eisenkot Form New Government on Condition of Excluding Arab Parties ======== Israeli opposition leaders agree to recommend Gadi Eisenkot to form the government first. Joint pledge to begin coalition negotiations and coordinate efforts to form a new national emergency government. Yisrael Beiteinu party leader Avigdor Lieberman refuses to cooperate with Arab parties, according to Yediot Aharonot. Naftali Bennett supports excluding Arab parties from forming the next Israeli government. The Israeli opposition confirms its unity to prevent Netanyahu from becoming prime minister, but without agreement on the Knesset speakership.
Joint statement to the leaders of the Change and Amendment parties: The party leaders are coordinating and will act immediately to replace the 7/10 government with a national emergency government and realize the clear parliamentary majority in the Knesset. The party leaders are coordinating regarding the need to establish a Zionist government based on the four principles set forth by Eisenkot, as early as possible. The party leaders have coordinated plans and steps to realize the parliamentary majority, immediately - already in the first days of the Knesset. In accordance with the agreement of the party leaders, all parties will recommend to the President of the State the chairman of the Yeshar! party! Gadi Eisenkot, to receive the first mandate to form a government, with the aim of forming a government as quickly as possible and preventing Israel from being dragged into additional elections. The meeting determined that the parties' negotiating teams would begin working immediately to formulate the basic guidelines and agreements for forming the 38th government.
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
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