Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?Otzma Yehudit
Open$34Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO87¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
As expected: Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit also announced that it will recommend Netanyahu to form a government
Otzma Yehudit: We will recommend Netanyahu as a candidate to form a government
Otzma Yehudit: We will recommend Netanyahu as a candidate to form the government
@avivi_efrat
After Shas and Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit also announced that it will recommend Netanyahu as a candidate to form a government @diklaaharon
Otzma Yehudit also announced that it would recommend Netanyahu.
Otzma Yehudit announced that it will recommend Netanyahu to form a government
@DaphnaLiel
Dafna Liel
The Otzma Yehudit party announced that it will recommend Benjamin Netanyahu to form a government
Otzma Yehudit: Likud agreement is intended to keep us out of the Netanyahu-Eizenkot government
Otzma Yehudit: Unfortunately, the Likud refused to sign a surplus agreement with Otzma Yehudit, as part of the Likud's attempt to reduce Otzma Yehudit and keep Ben-Gvir out of the unity government that the Likud is planning with Eisenkot.
Where does the news lean?
7YES3NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
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